The NHL season has started strong, but players are still mispriced while teams remain under- or overvalued, and I'm pouncing with my NHL predictions.
JJ Peterka’s point prop still isn’t where it should be after an increase in ice time and top-line opportunities, and the Winnipeg Jets are on the second half of a back-to-back set. I like the goal environment in that game, with the Pittsburgh Penguins looking like a dead Over team to begin the season.
These are my favorite NHL Picks for Monday, Oct. 5.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 JJ Peterka Over 0.5 points |
48% |
  Jets vs. Penguins Over 6.5 |
51% |
| Cole Perfetti Over 0.5 points |
51% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: JJ Peterka Over 0.5 points
JJ Peterka has logged points in two of his first three games with the Boston Bruins, and he's been playing over 20 minutes per contest lately. This price for a single point is well off, with a fair price closer to 59%. He shouldn't be priced longer than Pavel Zacha and/or Morgan Geekie.
The Bruins are a team that's undervalued in the market, while the Ottawa Senators are overvalued, so that’s likely where this price is coming from. Peterka’s performance last year in Utah is also at play here, as his role there was nothing like what it is now in Boston.
Hockey markets, especially point props, can take weeks to move toward fair value. By November, Peterka will likely be priced accurately. But until then, take advantage of the 11-point edge.
- Matchup: Senators vs. Bruins
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
- TV: NESN
Pick #2: Jets vs. Penguins Over 6.5
The Winnipeg Jets are on the second half of a back-to-back and will be going with waived netminder Clay Stevenson. The Pittsburgh Penguins can score and have started the season with 13 goals in two games. Couple that with the Jets’ power play scoring three goals on Sunday and the Pens going 4-for-8 on the man advantage through two outings, and there should be two-way scoring Monday night.
There are a lot of point combos to look at in this game, too. Evgeni Malkin and Egor Chinakhov are a PP2 point combo I like, while Cole Perfetti and the Jets’ top line are more than likely to find the scoresheet. Nick Robertson is 2.65x for a point and playing on the top line with Sidney Crosby and Rickard Rakell.
Both teams are profitable to the Over, and this is the game to target for goals on the four-game Monday slate.
- Matchup: Jets vs. Penguins
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- TV: Sportsnet Pittsburgh
Pick #3: Cole Perfetti Over 0.5 points
The top-line winger posted three points yesterday, with all three coming on the power play. Cole Perfetti played over 17 minutes and should not be shorter than 60% for a point.
The Jets’ offense gets to pile up goals against the Pens, who blew a four-goal lead on Saturday and are still one of the weaker defensive and goaltending teams leaguewide. If the Penguins are scoring, and they are, Pittsburgh might be one of the best Over teams in hockey.
Perfetti’s point prop will take time to reach fair value, and like Peterka’s point prop, it’s a play for us until it falls 30-plus points. Playing next to Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor at even strength and on the top power-play unit is one of the better point opportunities in hockey.
- Matchup: Jets vs. Penguins
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- TV: Sportsnet Pittsburgh
- Top picks: 7-6, +0.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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