The Dallas Stars are sizable home favorites over the San Jose Sharks ahead of the 8 p.m. ET puck drop at the American Airlines Center on Monday, Oct. 5.
My favorite Sharks vs. Stars prediction and NHL picks expect the total to come in Under the number, with Dallas star Wyatt Johnston leaving his mark on the game sheet tonight.
TOP PICK
Sharks vs Stars prediction: Under 6.5
The San Jose Sharks have generated the second-fewest expected goals at 5-on-5 per 60 minutes through two games, and their overall 15.8% team shooting percentage is unsustainably high.
It’s been just the opposite for the Dallas Stars.
They’re posting a 1.8 team SH% with a single goal through their two games, so while the offense will pick up, I’m not expecting Dallas to run up the score tonight.
Goaltending stands to be a strength for Dallas, too. Projected starter Jake Oettinger sports a rock-solid .907 SV% on home ice over the past three years.
With San Jose set for a splash of statistical correction, this Under has my attention to 56%.
COVERS INTEL: The Dallas Stars only have three shot attempts off the rush through two games, and head coach Glen Gulutzan noted the lack of early-season chemistry and poor breakouts from the defensive zone have led to an inability to create high-level scoring chances following Saturday's 2-1 loss to the Nashville Predators.
Sharks vs Stars combo
Dallas loading up Wyatt Johnston and Mikko Rantanen on the same line presents a matchup nightmare for San Jose. The duo has been on the ice for 5.36 goals and 5.21 expected goals per 60 minutes over the past three years, and Rantanen has posted a high-end 3.23 points per 60 during the stretch.
Of course, Johnston has also paced the Stars with 14 shot attempts while averaging a monster 22:20 of ice time to start the season.
Sharks vs Stars combo
- Under 6.5
- Mikko Rantanen 1+ points
- Wyatt Johnston 3+ shots
Sharks vs Stars player prop: Wyatt Johnston 3+ shots
Sticking with Johnston, he and Rantanen have combined for a 53.6 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5, and the Sharks are a favorable matchup.
San Jose surrendered the sixth-most shots per game last year and have allowed 30.5 through their two games this year while sporting a 43.4 CF% at 5-on-5, so I'd recommend Johnston to record three or more shots to 56%.
Sharks vs Stars goal scorer: Wyatt Johnston
Johnston scored 28 of his 45 goals at home last season with an impressive 20.46 expected goals and 80 individual high-danger scoring chances.
He’s also generated 0.76 expected goals and three iHDCF through two 2026-27 contests, so the go-to scorer has been dangerous without finding the back of the net.
I recommend Johnston to score to 45%.
- Top picks: 8-5, +3.36 units
- Combos: 1-4, -0.5 units
Sharks vs Stars odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Sharks 36% | Stars 65%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (49%) | Under 6.5 (52%)
- Spread: Sharks +1.5 (59%) | Stars -1.5 (42%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Sharks vs Stars trend
The San Jose Sharks have won nine of their last 14 games (+4.10 Units / 25% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Sharks vs Stars
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 5, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Sharks vs Stars latest injuries
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