Nathan MacKinnon scored a career-high 53 goals and won the Rocket Richard last season.
He has developed into one of the league's most feared finishers, and my NHL picks love his chances of opening his account tonight at home against the Los Angeles Kings.
MacKinnon headlines my three NHL player props for Wednesday, Sept. 30.
Today's best NHL player prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Sidney Crosby Over 1.5 shots |
64% |
 Trevor Zegras Over 0.5 points |
60% |
 Nathan MacKinnon anytime goal |
47% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Sidney Crosby Over 1.5 shots
Death, taxes, and Sidney Crosby shots against the Philadelphia Flyers. I’m on two or more up to 70%, and would also consider three plus to 50%.
He has feasted on the division rival over the years, clearing 2.5 shots in 15 of the last 19 head-to-head meetings.
Crosby faced the Flyers nine times last season as a byproduct of also playing them in the playoffs. He recorded at least three shots in eight of those games.
Linemate Bryan Rust, who finished tied for second on the Pittsburgh Penguins in goals, is sidelined to start the season. That may force Crosby to take it upon himself and be even more aggressive.
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
- TV: TNT, SN+
Prop pick #2: Trevor Zegras Over 0.5 points
I’m backing Trevor Zegras to pick up a point, and would play it to 64%.
Zegras had a breakout first season with the Flyers, setting a career-high in points with 67.
He hit the scoresheet in 62% of his games and 76% of his home dates. That checks out, as head coach Rick Tocchet can get him easier, more favorable matchups on home ice.
An added bonus is the Flyers are favored. Zegras piled up the points in such games, producing one 77% of the time. I like his chances against a high-paced Penguins team that allowed the ninth-most goals last season.
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
- TV: TNT, SN+
Goal scorer pick: Nathan MacKinnon
I like Nathan MacKinnon to find the back of the net to 53%.
MacKinnon is a hard player to slow at the best of times. When he’s rested? Almost impossible!
The 2025-26 Rocket Richard winner scored 12 goals over 15 games following two days of rest, and six goals over five games after at least three days off.
That’s 18 goals spanning 20 games when working on two or more days of rest. News flash: MacKinnon hasn’t suited up since last Friday.
With the Colorado Avalanche near -200 favorites in a game with a 6.5 total, the circumstances are perfect for MacKinnon to pot one — especially if last season’s version of Darcy Kuemper (-5.8 Goals Saved Above Expected) shows up.
- Matchup: Los Angeles Kings vs. Colorado Avalanche
- Time: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Ball Arena, Denver
- TV: TNT, SN+
- Prop picks: 0-3, -3.01 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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