There is an entertaining matchup on Tuesday night with the Pacific Division’s Calgary Flames hosting the Atlantic Division’s Florida Panthers. In the first meeting between these two clubs on November 19, Calgary won in an exciting 5-4 shootout.
Will we get yet another high-scoring affair, or can the goaltending step up this time around? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for the Panthers vs Flames on Sunday, November 27.
Panthers vs Flames best odds
Panthers vs Flames picks and predictions
There have now been seven or more total goals scored in each of Florida’s last seven games, a trend that should continue in this matchup with goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky slated to start between the pipes for the Panthers. It has been a tough year for Bobrovsky, who is just 4-5-1 with a .888 SV% and 3.62 GAA through the first quarter of the season.
Entering this game in particularly poor form, he has allowed four or more goals in three of his last four starts. Over that stretch, Bobrovsky possesses a troubling .862 SV% and 4.90 GAA.
Based on his metrics, there should not be a ton of optimism for Florida’s netminder to turn things around. At 5v5, Bobrovsky ranks just 25th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60).
This poor start to the season should continue against the Flames, a team he has struggled against over the last couple of seasons. Through his last four starts against Calgary, Bobrovsky is 1-2-1 with a .860 SV% and 4.70 GAA.
Seven or more total goals were scored in three of those four games. However, Bobrovsky should get a good amount of goal support as Florida boasts one of the deepest offenses in hockey.
At 5v5, the Panthers rank second in the league this season in expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60). Across the ice, goaltender Jacob Markstrom is projected to start in the crease for the Flames. Similar to Bobrovsky, Markstrom has had a tough start to the season. Through 16 starts, he possesses a .889 SV% and 3.03 GAA.
Among starting goaltenders, Markstrom ranks just 26th in GSAx/60 at 5v5. Also similar to Bobrovsky, the Flames’ netminder has struggled against the team he is facing tonight.
Over his last five starts against Florida, Markstrom possesses a .891 SV% and 3.62 GAA. There were seven or more total goals scored in three of those five outings.
Despite Calgary’s slow start to the season, its offense is due for positive regression. At 5v5, it ranks 17th in the league in GF/60 but 13th in xGF/60.
Given the big turnover in personnel over the offseason for the Flames, it is not surprising that there has been an adjustment period. With that in mind, the offense is going to start scoring in bunches sooner rather than later.
My best bet: Over 6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Panthers vs Flames moneyline analysis
This game should be closer to a toss up than the odds indicate, which means there is some value in Florida at +135. Personally, I am just sticking with the Over as these two teams can score in bunches and like to play fast — but taking a shot at the Panthers at this price is not a bad play either.
On paper, this matchup is relatively even. Both goaltenders have struggled, defenses are equal, and offenses are deep and full of talent.
The two things working against Florida are that superstar Aleksander Barkov is out with an illness, and it is on the road in the second half of a back-to-back following last night’s thrilling 4-3 loss to the Edmonton Oilers.
Barkov’s absence would be a much bigger deal to teams that do not have the depth that the Panthers possess. Another thing to look out for in this game is Matthew Tkachuk’s return to Calgary, and I am also placing a wager on him to score at +160.
Panthers vs Flames Over/Under analysis
The only concern with taking the Over is the fact that both teams also possess good defenses in addition to their good offenses. At 5v5, each of these clubs ranks inside the top half of the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
However, even if these defenses do a good job of suppressing high-danger scoring chances, I do not trust the goaltenders to prevent a few muffins from going in. Despite the strong defenses in front of them, Bobrovsky and Markstrom both possess save percentages south of .890.
While these two goaltenders have historically been good, their metrics thus far this season suggest that darker days are still ahead. We should not expect them to turn things around in a game that features this much offensive talent.
Panthers vs Flames betting trend to know
There have been seven or more total goals scored in each of Florida’s last seven games. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs Flames.
Panthers vs Flames game info
|Location:||Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB|
|Date:||Tuesday, November 29, 2022|
|Puck drop:||9:00 p.m. ET|
|TV:||Bally Sports Florida, SN1|