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Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Tampa Knots Up Series

We expected this series between two offensive juggernauts to provide plenty of fireworks, and they have not disappointed. Find out who we have our money on in Game 4 in our NHL betting picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.

Last Updated: May 8, 2022 1:52 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Steven Stamkos Tampa Bay Lightning NHL
Photo By - USAT TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Lightning will have to do whatever it takes tonight to avoid going down 3-1 against the Toronto Maple Leafs heading back to Scotiabank Arena. Toronto has a different vibe this year, as it looks to be playing with more confidence than ever before.

Andrei Vasilesvskiy has been unbeatable in games following a loss in the past two playoff years, will that trend continue?

Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning on Sunday, May 8

Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Lightning opened up as -115 home favorites, with the line having moved slightly as they are now -125. The total opened at 6.5 and hasn’t had any movement.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning predictions

Predictions made on 5/8/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Maple Leafs vs Lightning game info

Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
Date: Sunday, May 8, 2022
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: TBS, Sportsnet

Maple Leafs vs Lightning series odds (TOR leads 2-1)

Maple Leafs: -260
Lightning: +210

Maple Leafs vs Lightning betting preview

Key injuries

Maple Leafs: No injuries to report.
Lightning: Brent Seabrook D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning head-to-head record in the series

Maple Leafs: 2-1 SU, 13 goals for.
Lightning: 1-2 SU, 7 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Lightning are 15-0 following a loss in the playoffs since 2020. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning.

Maple Leafs vs Lightning picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The story of this game is how good Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Lightning have been since the playoffs in 2020 following a loss. In those two years, Vasilevskiy is 15-0-0 with a 1.31 GAA, a .948 SV%, and five shutouts. 

The Lightning didn’t play horribly in Game 3, they just didn’t really play with any urgency and made so many simple mistakes. Just like we saw in Game 2, you can expect to see Tampa come out flying in the first twenty minutes of Game 4, especially when you throw in the fact that it's on home ice. The Leafs are going to have to weather the storm because the Bolts will be playing with plenty more desperation. 

The Maple Leafs' offense has been scary good through the first three games of this series, but we have seen Vasilevskiy bounce back in this situation before, and there is no doubt in my mind that he can do that again tonight. 

The only area for concern is Tampa’s offense, as it hasn’t been as strong as we are used to seeing come playoff time. It's only averaging 2.33 goals per game through the first three games, but the good news is that the power play is starting to click once again. 

As we’ve seen in the past, this is Tampa’s game to lose. 

Prediction: Lightning ML (-125 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Both of these teams are so offensively gifted and we have seen that throughout this series. Toronto’s offense has been especially scary as it has scored at least three goals in all three games and has scored five in two out of the three. 

The Leafs have scored the third-most goals in the playoffs, only behind Edmonton and Colorado, as they are currently averaging 4.33 gpg. The Lightning’s offensive production hasn’t been as electric as Toronto’s but like I stated earlier, after a loss this Tampa team really steps it up a notch. 

Both sides are among the Top 5 playoff teams when it comes to generating chances. The Leafs are the fourth-best team at generating high-danger chances in the playoffs, currently averaging 13.33 per game, and the Lightning are right behind them in fifth, averaging 13. 

We should see another offensively focused hockey game tonight and I like the Over to hit.

Prediction: Over 6.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Jack Campbell has been great for the Leafs through the first three games, but it is very hard to bet against Andrei Vasilevskiy after a loss, especially in a game that is on home ice. 

Even though the score looked lopsided in Game 3, it was a much closer game than the final total led you to believe, as Toronto scored two empty-net goals. Tampa played well enough to win, it just wasn’t getting the bounces and it dug itself into too big of a hole by going down 3-0. 

I expect the Bolts to come out very hard in the opening twenty minutes and set the tone for this game. We haven’t seen them lose two games in a row in the playoffs in over two years and I don’t think it will happen tonight. Bet on the home side to tie up the series. 

PickLightning ML (-125 at DraftKings)


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