Maple Leafs vs Capitals Picks and Predictions: Washington Picks Up Key Points Against Toronto

The last time these two teams faced off, Washington was straight-up embarrassed by Toronto in a 7-3 beatdown. Will the Capitals be able to get their revenge against the Leafs? Find out our thoughts in our NHL betting picks and predictions.

Last Updated: Apr 24, 2022 1:17 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Alexander Ovechkin Washington Capitals NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We've officially reached the home stretch of the NHL season where teams find themselves battling for playoff positions and better seeding.

This matchup is no exception as the Toronto Maple Leafs will visit the nation's capital to take on the Washington Capitals, who look to escape a dreaded first-round battle against the Florida Panthers.

Washington has won seven of 10 straight up but will it be able to fend off a Toronto team that spanked it 7-3 less than two weeks ago? Find out what we're thinking in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Capitals 

Maple Leafs vs Capitals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

To no surprise, the total opened up at 7 and remains there as of Sunday morning. However, there are a few books offering 6.5 at juiced numbers. Washington opened this game as a -106 favorite but has been bet up to -120. Toronto moneyline can be found at +100 across most books.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals predictions

Predictions made on 4/24/2022 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Maple Leafs vs Capitals game info

Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
Date: Sunday, April 24, 2022
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Hulu, Sportsnet

Maple Leafs vs Capitals betting preview

Key injuries

Maple Leafs: Jake Muzzin, D (Out) Petr Mrazek G (Out), Ondrej Kase RW (Out) Rasmus Sandin D (Out) Michael Bunting LW (Out).
Capitals: Carl Hagelin LW (Out), Joe Snively LW (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals head-to-head record since 2019

Maple Leafs: 3-3 SU, 26 goals for.
Capitals: 3-3 SU, 20 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs are 4-11 SU in the last 15 meetings in Washington. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Capitals.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The last meeting between these teams was one to forget for Washington fans as the Capitals were on the wrong side of a 7-3 drubbing at the hands of the Maple Leafs. Will this matchup spell a similar result or will the Caps be able to pick up a win — and their dignity.

In that 7-3 win back on April 14, Toronto saw goals from four different skaters including two tallies each from Michael Bunting (who is out Sunday), William Nylander, and Ilya Mikheyev. The Buds were able to chase Samsonov with four goals on 19 shots and Vitek Vanecek fared no better allowing three on 13.

Vanecek is expected to get the call against the Leafs tonight after coming off a 19-save shutout against the bottom-feeding Coyotes Friday night. Vanecek has faced Toronto twice this season and has given up four goals on just 30 shots against the scorching offense. He hasn't been anything close to the Maple Leafs' kryptonite but has held his own much better than Samsonov has.

On the other side of the ice, the Buds will look to right the ship after having lost back-to-back games to division rivals Tampa Bay and Florida. This comes off a bit concerning as these are two teams Toronto will need to beat on its path to the Cup. It will most likely run with rookie Erik Kallgren in net tonight as Jack Campbell played last night in Florida.

Kallgren's season hasn't exactly been newsworthy, posting a 6-4-1 record with a 3.48 GAA and .882 SV%. Oh, and let's not forget to mention the eight goals he was lit up for against Tampa back on Thursday night.

Toronto comes into this game 6-4-2 on the season with no days rest but is just 2-2-1 when coming off a loss on a back-to-back. The once scorching-hot offense has also been kept at bay recently, amassing only three goals over its last two games.

That may lead some to believe they're due for a breakthrough with the Hart Trophy betting favorite Auston Matthews still chasing 60, but I'm not buying into it. The Leafs will certainly get theirs but don't expect to see seven goals again from the Leafs tonight. 

The Caps are 24-13-6 in games on one day's rest and have the honor of taking on a struggling Leafs team playing their third game in four days — all on the road. Although the matchups between both sides have been fairly even overall, Toronto is just 4-11 SU in the last 15 matchups in Washington.

It's easy to look at the last game's score and hop on the Leafs' train, but a change of scenery and a different goaltending matchup sets up the perfect revenge spot for the Capitals.

Prediction: Capitals moneyline (-118 at 888sport)

Over/Under analysis

If you sit back, take a look, and think about it for less than two seconds, you'll think Over 7 is absolutely the right play here. Well, you would have good reason to think that. The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between each side and both teams have played well above .500 to the Over on the season.

If we take a look back over the last 10 games for each side, the Leafs and Caps combined have played to the Over at 11-6-3. Although both teams have struggled offensively recently, I expect each of them to ramp up their lamp lighting to at least some degree. 

We really have to talk about the goaltending situation when bringing up the topic of goal scoring. This isn't exactly two perennial puck stoppers going toe-to-toe, with neither player having a SV% above .910. Vanecek's last 10 starts have also gone 6-4 to the Over and Kallgren has surrendered 18 goals over his last four starts.

On top of that, we're also dealing with two Top-10 offenses in the league with Toronto potting 3.81 goals per game (second in the league) and Washington with 3.37 (ninth).

Although the total is available at 7 on most books, you can find a 6.5 if you're willing to pay a little extra. In this case, we'll go with the 6.5 to get the better number and avoid a possible push.

Prediction: Over 6.5 (-135 at Coolbet)

Best bet

There really is no better bet for this game than the Over on the total. Both teams have been totally reliable playing that way, combining for an 89-59 O/U record this year. There's no reason to go away from this tonight.

While we like Washington on the moneyline, it can be hard to predict what trouble this Toronto offense can cause, so we're taking the safer play with the Over as our best bet.

With 6.5 being offered at some outlets, we're taking it every day of the week and twice on Sunday between these offensive juggernauts. 

PickOver 6.5 (-135 at Coolbet)

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