Lightning vs Islanders Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Back In It

The Tampa Bay Lightning have taken a 2-1 series lead over the New York Islanders after Thursday’s 2-1 win. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has the Islanders scratching their collective heads as the likely Vezina winner has allowed just five goals through the series’ first three games.

The Islanders are +110 NHL betting home dogs after closing Game 3 at +120. The total opened at a flat five.

Here are our free picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Islanders on June 19 at 8:00 p.m. ET.

Lightning vs Islanders game info

• Location: Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Long Island, NY
• Date: Saturday, June 19, 2021
• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC, Sportsnet, TVAS, USA

Lightning vs Islanders odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

NHL sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

As of 5:30 p.m. ET today, William Hill US's Nevada books haven't budged off the opening moneyline from late Thursday night, when the Lightning went up -130 to the Islanders' +110 for Game 4. "We're dead even to it right now on straight bets, but a little high on parlays to Tampa," WillHill director of trading Nick Bogdanovich said. "I think we'll need the Islanders, but I don't think it'll be a big decision." The total of 5 saw very nominal price movement, from Over -125 to Over -130, but action is quite limited. "Nothing to it. Hardly any money on the total," Bogdanovich said.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Lightning vs Islanders series odds

Lightning: -556
Islanders: +425

Lightning vs Islanders betting preview

Injuries

Lightning: No injuries to report.
Islanders: Anders Lee F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 5-1-1 in Islanders’ last seven games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Islanders.

Moneyline pick

Neither team gave up much ice in Game 3 at Nassau Coliseum, but the Bolts skated away with a 2-1 victory thanks to an incredible goal from Brayden Point late in the second period. Andrei Vasilevskiy took over from there and stopped all eight of the Islanders’ third-period shots en route to his fourth straight game of allowing two or fewer goals.

Vasilevskiy leads all goalies in the playoffs with 1.318 goals saved above expected/60 and comfortably leads the pack in WAR. The Tampa goalie has had a few duds in these playoffs, but he is in top form and the Islanders, outside of Mathew Barzal, are struggling to create offense and finish.

The Islanders did win the xgoal metric in Game 3 — 2.95 to 1.51 and controlled play for most of the second period. New York totaled more scoring chances (34 to 21), more high-danger chances (15 to 6) but couldn’t capitalize. The Zajac-Palmieri-Pageau and Barzal-Komerov-Eberle lines dominated possession and shot attempts but came up empty Thursday. 

New York did manage to keep its vulnerable PK off the ice in Game 3 as the home side took just one minor penalty on Thursday. Keeping Nikita Kucherov off the ice with an extra attacker is vital for the Isles to even this series and they will need Semyon Varlamov to keep the door shut, as the Islanders made great adjustments in the matchup game against versus the Kucherov-Point-Palat line that dominated Game 2. 

Tampa didn’t offer much of an offensive threat with just 1.51 xgoals to show for in Game 3. If it weren’t for Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay would be down 2-1 in the series. It’s hard to handicap games with hot goalies as playing above expected outcomes can only last for so long... right? 

We still like the Islanders but aren’t as high on them with the way Vasilevskiy has been locking it down. This should be another close battle and we’re looking for the Islanders to split the two games at Nassau before heading back to Tampa for a best-of-three.

PREDICTION: New York ML (+110)

Over/Under pick

We hammered the Over 5 in Game 3 and came up empty-handed as both teams combined for zero goals in the third period. In defeat, the Islanders put up their most scoring chances (34) and high-danger chances (15) in the series, but it was the Lightning’s offense that fell stagnant on the road with New York getting the last change. 

Thursday’s game had the lowest combined total of quality chances in the series and it was one Islanders goal away from at least pushing. We doubt the Tampa offense lays another dud on Saturday and we fully expect to see more PP time for both clubs after each team just saw one power play each on Thursday. 

If the Islanders can get on the board early, they will force Tampa to play its offensive catch-up mode which doesn’t result in sitting back in the neutral zone and trying to limit the quality of shots. Varlamov is the weaker of the two goalies and could see a better Tampa offense on Saturday, especially if New York can get up early. Five of the top scorers who are still in the playoffs are all Tampa Bay skaters. 

We’re going back to the well on Saturday and realize that Vasilevskiy could easily break our hearts again but with New York able to get chances and the Tampa offense looking for a bounce back, we have no problem hitting the Over 5 Saturday night.

PREDICTION: Over 5 (-135)

Lightning vs Islanders betting card

• New York ML (+110)
• Over 5 (-132)

Picks made on 6/18/2021 at 4:00 p.m. ET

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