The Colorado Avalanche will look to climb the West Division rankings Sunday as they play the second match of a two-game NHL betting set against the Los Angeles Kings on home ice.
The Avs shut out the Kings on Friday night 2-0 in a game that could have easily finished 6-0 with how dominant Colorado was. The victory pushed the home team within three points of the division lead and oddsmakers have the Avalanche as a heavy -233 favorite with the total opening at 5.5 shaded to the Over.
Here are our best free Kings vs. Avalanche picks and predictions for Sunday, March 14 (5:30 p.m. ET).
Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche betting preview
Injuries
Kings: Jonathan Quick G (Out), Alex Iafallo F (Questionable), Olli Maatta D (Out), Jaret Anderson-Dolan F (Out).
Avalanche: J.T. Compher F (Questionable), Erik Johnson D (Out), Cale Makar D (Out), Bowen Byram D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-0 in Colorado's last five games playing on one-day rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Avalanche.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonColorado opened as a healthy -235 favorite at TwinSpires and is up to -240 as of 3:30 p.m. ET. And it's all Avalanche on the moneyline, with a ticket count of 7/1 and money running 8/1. The book also noted a lot of moneyline parlay liability to the Avalanche. "Players can't get enough of Avs and Leafs moneyline today." The total opened at 5.5 (Over -120) and is now 5.5 (Under -114), with ticket count 2/1 on the Over, but money 2/1 on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePuck line pick
The Avalanche have only scored six goals over their last three games (2-1 SU) but lady luck has not been on their side in the shooting department over this stretch. In those three games, Colorado has outshot its opponent 35-14, 46-14 and 46-18 with the last one being the 2-0 win versus the Kings on Friday. The Avs have dominated these games but just haven’t been able to bury the puck.
Over their last three games, they have produced 9.72 expected goals for, compared to a minuscule 3.71 expected goals against. As a matter of fact, Colorado has finished its previous eight games with a higher expected goal output than its opponent, despite going 5-3 SU across those eight games.
It is only a matter of time before these shots start going in as Colorado is still a big contender for the division title—even though they sit in fourth place.
The Kings have to worry about hopping on a plane following Sunday’s game as they're scheduled to play in St. Louis on Monday. The quick turnaround and timezone change means L.A. will lose an hour (on top of daylight savings time from Sunday) and have less than 24 hours between games.
Looking at the potential goalie matchup, the home team will likely start Philipp Grubauer, who registered the 2-0 shutout on Friday. Grubauer has done a great job at staying sharp while seeing very few shots of late, which isn't easy for most goalies. He’s allowed just one goal in his last 124 minutes of action.
The Kings turned some heads with a six-game winning streak back in the middle of February. However, that streak began after a five-game losing skid and was followed by a stretch of 2-6 SU hockey from the Kings. The Kings will likely finish fifth – or worse – in the division as the books currently have them at +6,000 to win the West.
The Kings have been battling goalie injuries of late, as Jonathan Quick is on the shelf and possible Sunday starter Cal Peterson missed some action due to COVID protocols. If Petersen does get the call for the first game of the team’s back-to-back, the goalie will be looking to end a four-game losing streak that has seen him give up 14 goals over that stretch.
Colorado will hopefully find some luck and get the scoreboard to reflect that actual performance on the ice. There is no value on the moneyline but we aren’t afraid to take the favorites on the puck line (-1.5) as they are playing some of the best hockey in the league.
PREDICTION: Colorado -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under pick
Despite missing some key pieces in the defensive core in Cale Makar and Erik Johnson, the Avs still sit fifth in the league in goals against per game at 2.36. Recently, they have held their opponents to two goals or less in six of their previous nine games, which includes a pair of shutouts.
The Colorado offense has been its best defender over the last week as the Avalanche’s constant pressure has produced some lopsided shot totals. Getting any offensive ice time has not been easy for Colorado’s opponents which have recently produced some low team scores. If you like the Over, you’re expecting the Avs to do the majority of the heavy lifting.
In seven career games against the Kings, Grubauer is 4-2 SU with an eye-popping 1.35 goals-against average and a .953 save percentage. He has also blanked the Kings twice with the most recent being just two days ago. The Colorado netminder is turning into one of the better goalies in the NHL.
Despite the Avalanche’s offensive onslaught on Friday, Petersen stood on his head and stopped 44 of 45 shots and was outstanding between the pipes. We aren’t expecting another encore but the young goalie has also shown flashes of his potential this year while getting the majority of the starts.
The Avs sit 19th in the league in home scoring at 3.00 goals per game while their power play has also been league average this year and at home. Defensively, they sit in the Top 7 in goals allowed and in the penalty kill.
The Kings’ power play has been hot over the last three weeks (31.3 percent) but went 0 for 4 on Friday and may not get many chances as Colorado is one of the least penalized teams in the league.
We like Colorado to maintain the offensive pressure and don’t expect L.A. to keep pace With possible one-way scoring, we’re taking the Under at even money to finish the week.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (+100)
Kings vs Avalanche betting card
- Colorado -1.5 (+105)
- Under 5.5 (+100)
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