Game 1 of this Western Conference series is set to get underway with the Vegas Golden Knights hosting the Winnipeg Jets.
Competitive games are typically in store when these two clubs square off, with Winnipeg winning eight of the 14 all-time meetings.
Will the Golden Knights defend home ice to open this series, or can the Jets pull off the upset on the road? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Jets vs Golden Knights on Tuesday, April 18.
Jets vs Golden Knights Game 1 odds
Jets vs Golden Knights series odds
| Team | To win | Win in 4 | Win in 5 | Win in 6 | Win in 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | +140 | +1,700 | +950 | +550 | +600 |
| Golden Knights | -170 | +850 | +425 | +425 | +400 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 18, 2023.
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Jets vs Golden Knights Game 1 predictions
It makes sense why the Vegas Golden Knights opened as favorites in Game 1. Not only are they a solid team both offensively and defensively, but T-Mobile Arena is an incredibly difficult barn to play in, especially in the postseason.
With that said, there is too much value to pass up in the Winnipeg Jets’ moneyline at +135 via DraftKings Sportsbook. Vegas took a big step back over the second half of the regular season, ranking just 19th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), and 18th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5 since the Christmas break.
What happened? Their best two-way forward, Mark Stone, underwent back surgery and missed the second half of the campaign.
The good news for the Golden Knights is that Stone will be making his return on Tuesday. However, I am not sold on how healthy he actually is.
An indication of this is the fact that he has been skating with the third line, which means he may get sheltered minutes while bench manager Bruce Cassidy eases him back into the lineup. While Vegas took a step back during the second half of the year, Winnipeg took a step forward.
Since the Christmas break, the Jets rank 10th in the league in xGF/60 and eighth in xGA/60 at 5-on-5. Backing up this strong two-way team is goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, who has yet again put together a dominant campaign.
Through 64 starts between the pipes this year, Hellebuyck posted a 37-25-2 record with a commanding .920 save percentage (SV%) and 2.49 goals against average (GAA). Ending the season in particularly dominant form, he went 5-1 with a stellar .949 SV% and 1.51 GAA over his last six starts.
Winnipeg looked like the stronger team over the second half of the season, while Vegas felt Stone’s absence. With Hellebuyck in great form and Stone’s health still a question mark, it is worth taking a chance on the Jets to pull off the upset in Game 1.
My best bet: Jets moneyline (+135 at DraftKings)
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Jets vs Golden Knights Game 1 moneyline analysis
Based on Hellebuyck’s underlying metrics, regression is unlikely for the veteran netminder. He ranks fifth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) among starting goaltenders this season at 5-on-5.
Additionally, the Golden Knights are a team that Hellebuyck has dominated over the past couple of seasons. Over his last six starts against Vegas, Hellebuyck is 4-1-1 with a tremendous .940 SV% and a 2.30 GAA.
For those who enjoy a bit more risk, taking Winnipeg’s alternate puck line of -1.5 at +285 is not the worst chance to take. Each of the Jets’ past five wins have come by at least a two-goal margin, although, I believe the best value resides in the moneyline.
Jets vs Golden Knights Game 1 Over/Under analysis
I would lean towards the Under in this contest, but do not feel confident one way or the other. Hellebuyck continues to serve as a top-tier goaltender in this league, and nothing suggests that will change in this contest.
Across the ice, Laurent Brossoit is slated to start between the pipes for the Golden Knights. Since returning to the team in February, Brossoit has been brilliant in the crease.
Through 11 appearances, he is 7-0-3 with a .927 SV% and a 2.17 GAA. However, it is a small sample size, and he is outperforming his ability. That trend is unlikely to continue throughout the playoffs.
These teams have trended toward the Under all year long, especially the Jets, who hit only 23 Overs in 82 games.
Jets vs Golden Knights betting trend to know
The Jets are 7-1 in their last eight after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Jets vs Golden Knights.
Jets vs Golden Knights Game 1 game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 18, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, ESPN2 |
Jets vs Golden Knights Game 1 injuries
