With such high expectations coming into postseason play, it's surprising to see the Calgary Flames down 2-1 to the Dallas Stars.
Dallas has put the clamps down defensively, allowing just three goals in three games.
What do the Flames need to do differently to tie up the series? Find out in our NHL betting picks and predictions for Flames vs. Stars on Monday, May 9.
Flames vs Stars odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Flames opened up as -160 road favorites, a line that has since shifted a bit in their favor, now on the board at -165 in most spots. The total opened at 5.5 and hasn’t had any movement.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Flames vs Stars predictions
Predictions made on 5/9/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Flames vs Stars game info
• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Date: Monday, May 9, 2022
• Puck drop: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TBS, Sportsnet
Flames vs Stars series odds
Flames: -120
Stars: +100
Flames vs Stars betting preview
Key injuries
Flames: Sean Monahan F (Out).
Stars: Brayden Holtby G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Flames vs Stars head-to-head record
Flames: 1-2 SU, 3 goals for.
Stars: 2-1 SU, 6 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 in Calgary's last five games. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Stars.
Flames vs Stars picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Calgary Flames were the sixth-best offensive team in the regular season, averaging 3.55 goals per game, but they are struggling mightily to find ways to finish against the Dallas Stars in this series.
Through the first three games, the Calgary Flames have been the worst offensive team in the playoffs, only averaging just a goal per contest. That being said, they are due for some positive regression as they are still expected to score 3.03 gpg so it's only a matter of time until this offense breaks out.
Jake Oettinger does deserve a ton of credit for his performance thus far in what has been his first playoff appearances. He has been the best goalie in the postseason thus far, boasting a .969 save percentage, 1.01 goals against average, and +3.7 goals saved above expected.
He has stood on his head for the Stars who could now take a commanding 3-1 series lead.
Even though Oettinger has been the story of this series thus far, Jacob Markstrom has still been very good for the Calgary Flames, with a .942 SV%, 1.36 GAA, and +0.9 GSAx.
The goalies have been dominating this series and Markstrom can steal Calgary a win on the road. Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk are due for a goal and tonight should be the night they break out and lead this team to a win.
Back the Flames to tie up the series.
Prediction: Flames moneyline (-160 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
The goaltending has been the story of this series. Each of these offenses is struggling simply because of how great the other team's netminder has been.
Right now, the Flames and Stars are the Bottom-2 teams in the playoffs in regards to offensive production. The Stars rank 15th, averaging 2.00 gpg and have the 13th-ranked power-play, converting at a 9.1% rating. The Flames are right behind them, ranking 16th with 1.00 gpg and 14th in power-play percentage currently converting at an 8.3% clip.
Markstrom and Oettinger don’t want to give an inch to their opponent. Based on how this series has played out, whichever goalie doesn't bring their best stuff tonight will most likely lose.
Simply put, Calgary cannot afford to go down 3-1 in this series so we should see Markstrom give his best performance of the series thus far and Jake Oettinger knows how huge a 3-1 lead would be for the Stars.
Expect both of these guys to be locked in, and as a result, keep it Under the total.
Prediction: Under 5.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
Best bet
Jake Oettinger and Jacob Markstrom have taken over this series, Oettinger especially. He has limited the Flames to three goals in three games and has limited the three 40+ goal scorers on the Flames to only two goals combined. Elias Lindholm has both, while Gaudreau and Tkachuk are scoreless.
Jacob Markstrom knows that he has to put on his best performance tonight in order to send this series back to Calgary knotted up at 2-2. The Flames have the second-least expected goals against (2.51) while the Stars are expected to give up 3.03 goals tonight.
The Stars' offense is due for some regression, ranking 13th in generating chances (10.33 high-danger chances per game).
I trust both goalies and I don't expect either offense to take over. Back the Under.
Pick: Under 5.5 (-125 at DraftKings)
