An 11-game slate across the National Hockey League this evening presents serious value in my latest NHL player props analysis.
Connor McDavid starts my picks, followed by Matt Boldy and Kyle Connor, whom I expect to light the lamp again.
Find out more in my NHL picks for Tuesday, Oct. 20.
Today's best NHL player prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Connor McDavid Over 1.5 assists |
38% |
 Matt Boldy Over 3.5 SOG |
54% |
 Kyle Connor anytime goal |
42% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Connor McDavid Over 1.5 assists
Play up to 42%.
Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid is on an absolute tear, leading the NHL with 17 assists, four more than his closest competitor. He’s piled up seven helpers over his last three games, including three against Utah on Oct. 17.
There’s naturally more risk when banking on multiple assists, but McDavid’s underlying playmaking is impossible to ignore. Fourteen of his 17 assists have been of the primary variety, showing how directly involved he’s been in Edmonton’s scoring.
The Oilers have also generated plenty of scoring and high-danger opportunities with McDavid on the ice, further supporting his playmaking upside. The Minnesota Wild are no pushover defensively, but with McDavid creating at this level and handling elite offensive deployment, another multi-assist performance is firmly in play.
- Matchup: Wild vs. Oilers
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
- TV: ESPN+
Prop pick #2: Matt Boldy Over 3.5 shots on goal
Play up to 58%.
We're shifting to the other side of the McDavid matchup to target Matt Boldy. He's second in the league in shots on goal (SOG), averaging an impressive 4.56 per game. Boldy's volume has been ridiculous lately, with 14 SOG over his last two contests.
The 25-year-old's underlying metrics back up the case for another busy evening in Edmonton. Boldy leads the Wild in total shot attempts (78) and unblocked shot attempts (63) by a large margin. The Oilers are surrendering around 6.4 shots on net per game to left wingers, giving Boldy a favorable matchup.
With Boldy generating this much volume, 4+ SOG is firmly within reach again at Rogers Place.
- Matchup: Wild vs. Oilers
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB
- TV: ESPN+
Goal scorer pick: Kyle Connor
Play up to 46%.
Kyle Connor is off to a fast start, already potting eight goals in as many games. He's second in the league in goals, behind only Kirill Kaprizov. Connor has found the back of the net in four of his last five contests, and I like his matchup tonight.
The Winnipeg Jets take on the St. Louis Blues, who have been soft defensively, allowing 3.5 goals per game (24th) while giving up 26.6 SOG per game (17th). Connor leads the Jets in individual scoring chances and is second in high-danger chances.
For what it's worth, Connor has 15 goals in 31 career meetings with St. Louis and scored against the Blues last season.
- Matchup: Jets vs. Blues
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Enterprise Center, St. Louis, Mo.
- TV: ESPN+
- Prop picks: 10-14, -1.41 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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