Panthers vs Capitals Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Florida's Offense Gets Revived

Florida's goal-scoring prowess has been mostly minimized during the series' first three games. Our NHL betting picks and predictions break down why that should change in Game 4 — with the Panthers in need of a crucial win.

May 9, 2022 • 13:34 ET • 4 min read
Alexsander Barkov Florida Panthers NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Florida Panthers will try to avoid falling into a 3-1 series hole when they take on the Washington Capitals at Capital One Arena on Monday night. 

The underdog Caps have come out swinging against the President’s Trophy-winning Panthers, taking Games 1 and 3 in convincing fashion. 

Can Washington continue their winning ways? Will we see a closer game after each of the first three contests were decided by multiple goals? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Capitals for Monday, May 9.

Panthers vs Capitals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Panthers were unveiled as -163 consensus favorites despite a blowout loss in Game 3, and chalk players quickly pounced. Florida has been bet down anywhere from 10 to 20 cents off that opening line at most sportsbooks.

The opening total of 6.5 has yet to budge to 7, but it could get there before puck drop if the heavy vig on the Over at most sites is any indication. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Panthers vs Capitals predictions

Predictions made on 5/9/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Panthers vs Capitals game info

Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
Date: Monday, May 9, 2022
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET

Panthers vs Capitals series odds

Panthers: -135
Capitals: +115

Panthers vs Capitals betting preview

Key injuries

Panthers: No key injuries to report.
Capitals: Tom Wilson (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Panthers vs Capitals head-to-head record

Panthers: 5-4-1 SU, 38 goals for.
Capitals: 5-3-2 SU, 46 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Panthers are 16-5 in their last 21 games when their opponent scores five or more goals in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Capitals.

Panthers vs Capitals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Bettors should not anticipate the Capitals holding down the Panthers’ scoring machine in Game 4 on Monday night. 

Florida boasted the NHL’s top offense (4.1 goals per game) in the regular season, yet has been held to three total goals in their two losses this series. The only Panthers skater averaging a point per game in this series is Carter Verhaeghe, who is getting just 13:42 of ice time.

Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov seem due for a big performance at some point, and Anthony Duclair – who hasn’t even managed a shot on goal through three games – won't be held in check forever.

Ilya Samsonov figures to get the start in net once more for Washington after stopping 29 of 30 pucks he faced in his team’s Game 3 triumph. If he had performed like this all season, there wouldn’t even be a question as to who might get the starting nod between him and Vitek Vanecek.

However, Samsonov had a mediocre 3.02 GAA and .898 save percentage in the regular season, and his numbers were slightly worse at home (3.06 GAA, .883 SV%). 

Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky has played decently in this series, all things considered. He has a .904 SV% despite facing 94 shots through three games. Eventually, head coach Andrew Brunette should be able to make a defensive adjustment or two that could help Bobrovsky, as the Caps ranked only 14th in shots per game in the regular season. 

Trend bettors should anticipate Florida bouncing back in Game 4, as the Panthers are 70-23 in their last 93 games as the betting favorite, including a 19-7 mark in their last 26 games as a road favorite. 

The Capitals are 1-4 in their last five games following a win, so consistency has been difficult to come by for this upstart squad. 

Prediction: Panthers moneyline (-175 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

Each of the first three games of this series has featured a scoring outburst of at least four goals from one team, but the firepower has yet to be equaled in the same game, and that’s why Under bettors are off to a 2-1 start. That figures to change soon.

The Panthers will be the hungrier of the two teams on the ice in this one, and their top-notch offense should be able to solve the inconsistent Samsonov. Florida forwards Sam Bennett and Sam Reinhart have disappointed thus far, notching one goal between them after posting 61 combined before the playoffs began, but a breakout game for either sniper could be on the horizon.

Meanwhile, the Capitals’ postseason production has come from up and down their roster, after mainly driving it through the ageless Alex Ovechkin in the regular season. Only T.J. Oshie has scored more than once, and nine other skaters have a tally at this juncture. That kind of offense is quite difficult to stop altogether.

Taking a look at the trends, the Over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these clubs, and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Washington. Furthermore, the Over is 11-4 in the Panthers’ last 15 games when their opponent scores five or more goals in their previous game, and 18-7-1 in the Capitals’ last 26 games after allowing two goals or fewer in their previous game.

Prediction: Over 6.5 (-125 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Aleksander Barkov was instrumental in Florida’s 5-1 win in Game 2, as he notched the eventual game-winning goal plus an assist. However, he’s shockingly been held off the scoresheet in each of his club’s losses in this series.

Win, lose, or draw, it’s hard to keep a player of Barkov’s caliber from gathering at least a helper in three games out of four, and that’s why the best available bet in this one is for Barkov to score a point.

Barkov recorded only two pairs of games without scoring a point this year. One of those two pairs occurred in April after Florida had already clinched the President’s Trophy and had nothing to play for.

It’s not as though Barkov has had no impact in the two games he hasn’t pointed in this series, as he registered a total of seven shots in those contests. The Finnish superstar should be front-and-center as Florida roars back to tie the series on Monday night. 

Pick: Aleksander Barkov to score a point (-210)

NHL parlays

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Use our NHL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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