Week 7 NFL Trend Report: Another Avalanche of Unders?

When I was putting this article together last week, I had an internal debate as to whether or not I had too many Under trends. I like to mix it up a little bit in terms of providing different interesting trends, so I settled on just four… and all four of those Unders hit, as it did in 12 of the 15 Week 6 games.

I guess the whole point of this piece is to provide NFL betting trends that are actionable as opposed to just big sexy numbers, so there will no longer be any internal debates as to whether or not I have too much of one specific type of trend – who needs variety anyway!

This week’s article once again contains a handful of Under trends as some teams just keep going under the number, and the market isn’t really reacting.

For example, I’ve hammered the Under in every Saints game this season, and it’s hit in every Saints game this season. NFL odds for their games aren’t budging much though as all six games have been between 42 and 38.5 with the 42 coming in their most recent game against the Texans. In cases like this, I’ll keep playing the Under unless there’s a drastic move on the total.

League-wide Unders are hitting at 60.9%, which is a number that’s due to come down, but hopefully, we don’t get burned with our NFL Picks on any of the Under trends below.

Let’s get into the action!

Best NFL Week 7 betting trends

Jaguars vs. Saints

The trend: The Saints have gone Under in 15 of their last 16 games

Right back to the well on a trend that I’ve recommended every week so far this season. The total for this game is on the low end at 39, but it might not be low enough as the Saints haven’t topped 37 combined points in a game yet this season. During this 16-game Under tear, only two of the games crossed the 39-point mark.

See all Jaguars vs. Saints trends for Week 7.

Bills vs Patriots

The trend: These teams have combined to go Under in nine of 12 games this season

With the total for this matchup hovering around 41.5 points, it’s interesting to note that eight of these nine Unders failed to top the 41-point mark. New England’s offense still hasn’t scored more than 20 points this season, while Buffalo hasn’t allowed an opponent to top 20 in four of six games.

See all Bills vs. Patriots trends for Week 7.

Raiders vs. Bears

The trend: The Raiders are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite

You’d assume being favored on the road is rare for the Raiders, but that’s not the case as they were somehow favored on the road four times last season… and lost all four games outright. This game has “shit show” written all over it with the status of both starting quarterbacks up in the air along with some of the worst coaching you’ll see in professional sports. Las Vegas is favored by three.

See all Raiders vs. Bears trends for Week 7.

Commanders vs. Giants

The trend: The Under is 17-4-2 in the Giants’ last 23 home games

This trend cooled off a little bit in the second half of last season but has picked back up this season thanks to the Giants scoring a grand total of THREE points in two home games. The Under also has a long-standing tradition when Washington rolls into town as it’s gone an incredible 18-4-1 in the last 23 matchups in New York. This game has a total of 39.5.

See all Commanders vs. Giants trends for Week 7.

Lions vs. Ravens

The trend: The Lions are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog

This impressive run as an underdog includes seven straight covers where they were an outright winner six times. Nobody is sleeping on Detroit anymore, but they’re continuing to cash tickets as they’re on a 14-2 ATS tear regardless of whether they’re favored or are getting points. The Ravens are favored by three in this game and they’ve been a poor bet at home, going 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 in Baltimore. 

See all Lions vs. Ravens trends for Week 7.

Browns vs. Colts

The trend: The Browns are 3-13 SU after a win since the start of the 2021 season

The Browns have been allergic to momentum the past few seasons and this season is no different as they still haven’t won or covered the spread in consecutive games. Interestingly enough, the Colts have had two of their best performances of the season after losses, which is the situation they’re in for this game. The Browns are favored by two and the Colts’ moneyline is hovering around +110.

See all Browns vs. Colts trends for Week 7.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers

The trend: The Falcons have gone Under in 15 of their last 20, including 8 of 10 starts from Desmond Ridder

It’s been rock-bottom scoring in Falcons games for the most part, thanks primarily to averaging a pitiful 16.5 points per game. Their opponent hasn’t fared much better as the Buccaneers are averaging just 18 points per game. This game has a low total of 38.5, but it’s worth noting that the Falcons scored just six and seven points in their two previous road games this season.

See all Falcons vs. Buccaneers trends for Week 7.

Steelers vs. Rams

The trend: The Steelers are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of three or less

No one should be surprised by this trend as the Steelers often find themselves winning dirty and playing up to the competition. They were an outright winner in 14 of these 18 games including their last two games in this spot vs the Raiders and Browns this season. Los Angeles is favored by three points but it should be noted that Pittsburgh has been an outright winner in four straight games as an underdog.

See all Steelers vs. Rams trends for Week 7.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks

The trend: The Cardinals are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 divisional matchups

We’re entering a fourth straight season where the Cardinals have been a punching bag for their NFC West rivals. Shrinking the trend down, Arizona is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 divisional matchups — this includes losses of 17 and 19 to the Rams and 49ers this season. Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Arizona. Unsurprisingly, the Seahawks are one of the biggest favorites of the week at eight points.

See all Cardinals vs. Seahawks trends for Week 7.

Packers vs. Broncos

The trend: The Packers are 5-0 ATS on the 2nd half spread

What a matchup we have here between two of Nathaniel Hackett’s former teams — what a storyline!  Anyways, Green Bay leads the league in second-half points with 17.4 per game while Denver is allowing the second-most at 16.5. This seems like a convenient pairing with Green Bay favored by 1.5 on the second-half spread.

See all Packers vs Broncos trends for Week 7.

Chargers vs. Chiefs

The trend: The Chiefs have gone Under their team total in five of six games this season

I think we can all agree that the Chiefs offense looks different this season. Travis Kelce has been beat up all year and Patrick Mahomes hasn’t created much chemistry with the team’s underwhelming receiving corps. The Chiefs are averaging 24.5 points per game and have really only exploded in one game when they scored 41 vs. the Bears.

See all Chargers vs. Chiefs trends for Week 7.

Dolphins vs. Eagles

The trend: These teams have combined to go Over the first-half total in nine of 12 games

These teams come out flying, especially the Dolphins who average 20.7 first-half points which is easily the top mark in the NFL. The Eagles rank ninth at 13.8, but they’ll have a good shot to improve that number vs. a Dolphins defense that’s allowing the fifth most first-half points at 14.7. The first half total is at 25.5, which might be a smarter play than the full game total if you like the Over as the defenses for both teams have been better in the second half. 

See all Dolphins vs. Eagles trends for Week 7.

49ers vs. Vikings

The trends: The 49ers are 5-1 ATS on the 1st quarter spread, the Vikings are 1-5 ATS on the 1st quarter spread

The 49ers have been shot out of a cannon in the opening quarter in the majority of their games, outscoring five of their six opponents thanks to allowing a total of six first-quarter points in all of those games. The Vikings are having a lot of trouble getting started, as they’ve been shut out four times in the opening quarter. San Francisco is favored by -0.5 on the first-quarter spread. 

See all 49ers vs. Vikings trends for Week 7.

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