Week 3 NFL Parlay Picks: Three is a Magic Number for Titans

Titan Up!

I've picked the Tennessee Titans two straight weeks in this space, and they're off to a 2-0 ATS start in the NFL odds this season. I see no reason to jump off that bandwagon just yet, so I'll feature Mike Vrabel's men in my same-game parlay for Sunday.

But first, I'll highlight my two favorite totals from Sunday's NFL Week 3 odds action in a traditional two-leg parlay. Read on for my free NFL picks, including my best parlay and SGP pick, for Week 3 action.

Week 3 NFL parlay picks

• ATL/DET o46 + BUF/WAS u43.5 = +258
• Titans +3.5 + Henry anytime TD + Watson longest completion u35.5 yds = +450

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Best Week 3 parlay pick

Falcons/Lions Over 46

Bills/Commanders Under 43.5

+258 at DraftKings

The Atlanta Falcons will be looking to run the ball at Ford Field this Sunday, while the Detroit Lions will be angling to throw it early and often. Based on the way these opposing defenses have played through two weeks, both offenses look poised to struggle. However, I believe just the opposite will transpire.

Yes, the addition of safety Jessie Bates has upgraded the Falcons' pass defense, but allowing 133.5 yards per game is simply unsustainable. Atlanta had the benefit of facing a green Bryce Young and Jordan Love in its first two games, both at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. This stop unit was 25th against the pass in 2022 with 231.9 yards allowed per game.

Even if Amon-Ra St. Brown (toe) doesn't suit up for the Lions, Jared Goff has other options to throw to. That includes Josh Reynolds, who went for 66 yards and two scores vs. the Seahawks last week.

I'm also expecting major regression from the Detroit rush defense, which currently ranks ninth with 86 yards allowed per game on the ground. This unit was 29th in the same category a year ago (146.5 yards allowed per game). That means potential for big days for both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, who already look like the scariest running back tandem in the NFL.

Meanwhile, Bills vs. Commanders looks like it will be a bit of a slog this Sunday. 

The Josh Allen-led Buffalo offense has attempted the sixth-most throws per game through two weeks (eighth in the same category last year) and has the 19th-best net yards per attempt figure. Washington's defense was a stingy 10th in the corresponding category last year, and ranked the same through two games. That includes Russell Wilson's fluky Hail Mary completion at the end of Week 2's win over the Broncos.

The Commanders' offense could hardly be called explosive, as they're currently 23rd in yards per play (4.9) after ranking 27th in that area (4.9) in 2022. Brian Robinson can secure some first downs for Washington, but I don't yet trust Sam Howell against a Bills defense that's allowed 16 points per game this year (fifth), and 17.9 points per game a year ago (second). 

Best Week 3 SGP

Titans +3.5

Derrick Henry anytime TD

Deshaun Watson longest completion u35.5 yards

+450 at Caesars

Like I said earlier, I'm riding with the Titans for the third consecutive week, and they're 2-0 ATS so far. Tennessee has been outstanding in the underdog role in the Mike Vrabel era, going 24-9-1 ATS when getting three or more points. But I'm not just blindly following the NFL Week 3 trends, and the other two legs in this SGP should paint a clearer picture as to why I like the Titans to at least keep things close against the Browns.

Cleveland is tied for third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (65) through two weeks, which seems impressive at first glance. But the No. 1 running backs they faced in those matchups — Joe Mixon and Najee Harris — toted the rock just 23 combined times. Those tailbacks still averaged a solid 4.3 yards per carry, so this unit could certainly regress back to the level that saw them rank 25th in rushing yards allowed per game in 2022 (135).

The Browns allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns last season (22), so look for Derrick Henry to carry the ball across the goal line for the Titans on Sunday. He did so once last week, and in 10 of 16 contests last year.

Finally, we'll fade Deshaun Watson in the longest-pass department. While it's true that he should be shouldering more of a burden in this one with Nick Chubb done for the year, Watson has clearly lost his touch, completing a mere 55.1% of his throws through two games. It was a similar story last year, when Watson found his target just 58.2% of the time.

Through eight games with Cleveland, Watson's longest completion is only 21 yards. This year, his longest completion is a dismal 13 yards.

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