The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to five units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
We’re looking to rebound after a holiday letdown but we're still in the black on the season and up 2.995 units. Week 13 has us eyeing a running back in the Jets’ backfield that is getting the red zone workload, a Seahawks receiver who has been neglected, a familiar QB-WR connection in a new environment, and the lead back on a team that loves to run.
Without further ado.
NFL Week 13 touchdown props
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Week 13 TD props
DK Metcalf anytime TD (+120 at PointsBet)
Russell Wilson’s return from a finger injury has not gone well. The 33-year-old QB has tossed just two touchdowns in his three games since seemingly rushing back. Wilson did, however, finally look more like his old self in Week 12, with two passing TDs and 247 yards passing. He will look to improve on that outing Sunday versus the 49ers, and getting DK Metcalf involved is a point of emphasis from offensive coordinator Shane Waldron.
Metcalf has just 70 receiving yards in the Seahawks’ last three games and wasn’t even targeted in the first half in Week 12’s loss to the Football Team. Metcalf’s lack of involvement hasn’t been lost on Waldron. “We’ve got to get the guy the ball,” Waldron told ESPN. “We’re going to keep working to get that done, not making any excuses about different things that happened throughout the course of the game. It’s just something we have to get done.”
The Seahawks are likely heading for their first losing season since drafting Wilson in 2012 but keeping Metcalf, their best offensive weapon, content is likely high on Waldron's to-do list.
Metcalf went 4/64/1 versus the Niners in Week 4 this season and added another 12/161/2 game at home versus San Francisco last season. The hulking pass-catcher has four TDs in five games against Kyle Shanahan’s team.
The 49ers are a hard team to run against but own the No. 23 defense in EPA per dropback. Metcalf's TD price of +120 is the best price we’ve seen all season with Wilson under center. With the QB one more week adjusted after returning and his OC in his corner, we’re backing Metcalf to make an impact and get his first TD since Week 8. Metcalf had eight TDs in his first eight games of the season. We’re betting to win 1.5 units at +120.
Josh Reynolds anytime TD (+650 at bet365)
D’Andre Swift has been ruled out for the Lions’ game versus the Vikings this weekend, which means Jared Goff will likely need some help in the passing game and no receiver has been more of a helping hand than newcomer Josh Reynolds.
In his second game after coming over from the Rams, Reynolds caught three passes for 70 yards and a TD last Thursday. He already has a ton of chemistry with Goff, so getting up to speed is a quicker process in Detroit.
The receiver has played at least 88 percent of the team’s snaps in the last two weeks and is the best and most-talented option for Detroit's passing game, which enters Week 13 versus the Vikings as 7.5-point home underdogs.
The Vikings’ defense allows the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, which includes 1.3 touchdowns allowed per game and 1.8 on the road.
While most other books are posting a Reynolds anytime TD at +250 to +350, bet365 is again giving us another +EV price at +650. He cashed at +510 last week and getting an even better price after clearly being the team’s best passing option makes this a one-unit play for us. Detroit is in need of playmakers with Swift out.
Austin Walter anytime TD (+700 at bet365)
We were high on Jets’ running back Tevin Coleman last week and despite rushing for 67 yards on 16 rushes, he lost some goal line work to Austin Walter, who vultured a TD last week and finished with 38 yards on nine carries.
With Michael Carter still on the injured reserve, the Jets’ backfield could again be a three-headed approach in Week 13 versus the Eagles. With Robert Saleh giving Walter six red zone carries compared to Coleman and Ty Johnson’s combined one, we’re backing the undrafted back out of Rice.
Walter’s TD market opened at +1,000 last week and those that hit that will likely be going back to the well in Week 13 with a price of +700 at bet365.
Saleh’s familiarity with Walter from San Francisco is in our favor and although the RB had only 16 snaps (24%), he could see an expanded role after impressing last week. Even without looking at the matchup versus the Eagles (slightly less than neutral), this is a great play on price alone and with his usage last week in the red zone, we’re putting a full unit on it.
Devonta Freeman anytime TD (+150 at bet365)
Devonta Freeman has seen 16 rushes in back-to-back weeks and has looked 100 times better on the ground than Latavius Murray despite splitting snaps fairly evenly. He received eight more carries than his backfield teammate and could be in for a big day against a bottoming-out Pittsburgh defense that just allowed Joe Mixon to rack up 165 yards and two TDs.
Over the last three games, Mike Tomlin’s defense has surrendered a league-high seven rushing TDs. D’Andre Swift had 133 yards on the ground versus the Steelers three weeks ago and Austin Ekeler rushed for two scores in Week 11. The Ravens struggled to pass the ball last week and could go heavy on the run at a loud Heinz Field. We’re also fans of the Ravens -4.5 spread and like Baltimore playing with the lead more than playing from behind on Sunday.
Getting these TD plays locked in early is extremely beneficial to bettors as there tends to be a few outlying prices available before the weekend hits and the markets become efficient. Most books have Freeman at even money but bet365 is offering +150, which is +EV for a No. 1 back on a team that loves to run and is 4.5-point favorites in a divisional game. We’re on it to win two units.
Season to date: 18-40 SU +2.995 units