The second half of the NFL season officially starts in Week 10 and that means the pressure is building and the schedule is grinding.
It also means the NFL Week 10 odds are drum tight, so finding underlying angles and edges is vital to keeping the cash flowing with your NFL picks.
A great way to discover hidden advantages are situational angles — AKA spot bets. I look to the Week 10 slate and headline my favorite letdown, look-ahead, and schedule spots to keep in mind when capping the NFL odds.
Letdown Spot: New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders
If you thought the roller coaster outside New York was wild, just look at the ride the Las Vegas Raiders went on this past week.
The organization fired head coach Josh McDaniels and its GM, put the team in the hands of inexperienced interim Antonio Pierce, and blew the roof off the Death Star with a 30-6 blasting of the New York Giants (Pierce’s former team).
But like all roller coaster rides, there’s a quick drop at the end of those slow climbs. The letdown looms large for Las Vegas in Week 10.
The Raiders remain home and welcome the New York Jets, who still must play the L.A. Chargers on Monday as of this writing. The look-ahead line for this matchup is bouncing between Raiders +1.5 and +2.
Rookie QB Aidan O’Connell was adequate against the Giants and got a big boost from RB Josh Jacobs, but now they face a Gang Green defense that is stingier than its Big Apple Brethren. Heading into Week 9’s finale, the Jets are No. 8 in EPA allowed per play and allowing the sixth-lowest success rate per handoff.
After an emotionally draining stretch, the Silver and Black may come out flat in Week 10.
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Look-Ahead Spot: Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals are back and let the league know it in a big way Sunday night. Cincy slammed the Buffalo Bills in a game that wasn’t as close as the 24-18 score would indicate.
That victory puts the team on a four-game winning streak heading into Week 10’s homestand with… the Houston Texans. This foe doesn't carry the same level of intensity the Bengals have battled in recent matchups with Buffalo, San Francisco, and Seattle.
Oddsmakers are piling on the points, with Cincinnati laying -8 on Monday morning. That spread will likely climb with public bettors flocking to the red-hot Bengals. However, if you're looking to lay the points with Joe Burrow & Co., just keep in mind Week 10 is a sour situational spot for Cincy.
Not only are the Bengals in letdown mode after a monster win over Buffalo, but they could also get caught looking past Houston to a short-week showdown with the rival Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football in Week 11.
A big spread this Sunday and a crucial divisional game four days later could have Cincinnati taking its foot off the gas, should it be up in the second half. As this line rises, the threat of a backdoor cover grows — especially with a plucking team like the Texans fighting to the finish.
Schedule Spot: Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks
The Washington Commanders have spent so much time living out of a suitcase, they should have their own buddy comedy with Steve Martin.
Washington completes one of the most daunting stretches of schedule for any team in Week 10.
Not only does it have to cross the country to play in Seattle this coming Sunday, but this stop in Lumen Field will be the team’s second straight road game and fourth road outing in five weeks. It doesn’t stop there. The Commanders are also playing their fifth away contest in a seven-game span that started on October 1.
Oddsmakers are giving Washington six points on the road after the Commies took a victory in Foxborough this past Sunday. The Commanders have held their own as visitors, with a 4-1 against the spread count powered by an average margin of +0.6 away from the DMV.
The Seahawks, who will actually travel the most miles of any team in 2023, are back home after a bad day in Baltimore. Seattle is 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS in front of the infamous "12" this season and head coach Pete Carroll is 48-29-4 ATS when coming off a loss during this time with the franchise (since 2010).
We’ll see if Washington has any fight left after traveling to the Emerald City in Week 10.
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