The play of rookie Jalon Daniels was a pleasant surprise for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the team's Week 5 win under the bright prime-time lights of Thursday Night Football.
But Daniels remains untested and unproven, and a struggling 1-4 Bucs team needs experience at the helm. Which leads to a critical question as Tampa tries to save its season: When will Baker Mayfield return?
Mayfield has been out for the past two games while dealing with a dislocated thumb. He's progressing, but his return unfortunately doesn't appear imminent.
Let's examine his outlook and how the signal-caller's continued absence could impact the Steelers vs. Buccaneers odds ahead of their Week 6 matchup on Sunday, Oct. 18.
Steelers vs. Buccaneers odds
 Steelers |
Market |  Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| 56% | Moneyline | 44% |
| -2.551% | Spread | +2.549% |
| Over 40.550% | Total | Under 40.550% |
When will Baker Mayfield return?
Baker Mayfield first suffered the injury in Week 3 against the Minnesota Vikings. A broken play led to the always elusive quarterback trying to get creative late in the fourth quarter, with his team trailing 20-16 in a game the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would eventually lose.
After evading pass-rushers, he jumped up to make a desperation heave, and his thumb struck a defender awkwardly. And that's when Mayfield added to his long injury history. That's laid out in full below, but although he suffered from a few ailments that may have hampered his play at times, Mayfield had been remarkably durable and hadn't missed a game with the Bucs yet.
He's now missed two so far this season, and seems in great danger of sitting out a third.
He didn't participate in practice on Wednesday, and an inability to log even a limited session over two weeks since the injury shows the severity. Even more concerning is that head coach Todd Bowles said he hasn't resumed throwing in any capacity.
Being able to grip a football with strength and confidence is rather important for the whole leading an NFL offense thing. It's a fundamental element, and there's simply no hope of Mayfield surfacing under center again soon if he can't throw yet.
For now, it looks highly likely we get another Jalon Daniels sighting.
Baker Mayfield injury history
| Date | Team | Injury | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 5, 2013 |
 TTU |
Right knee strain (Grade 1) | Nov. 9, 2013 Missed four games |
| Nov. 21, 2015 |
 OKLA |
Concussion protocol | Nov. 28, 2015 No starts missed |
| Oct. 11, 2020 |
 CLE |
Chest / Rib sprain | Oct. 18, 2020 No starts missed |
| Sept. 19, 2021 |
CLE |
Left shoulder labrum tear / fracture | Oct. 31, 2021 Missed one game (Week 7); had offseason surgery |
| Oct. 9, 2022 |
 CAR |
High ankle sprain | Nov. 6, 2022 Missed two games |
| Sept. 18, 2023 |
TB |
Right shoulder AC joint sprain | Sept. 25, 2023 No starts missed |
| Nov. 4, 2024 |
TB |
Toe injury | Nov. 10, 2024 No starts missed |
| Sept. 27, 2026 |
TB |
Right thumb dislocation | Doubtful / Week-to-week Return date TBD |
Who has replaced Baker Mayfield?
The job has fallen to Daniels, with mixed results.
The first regular-season start for the mobile and athletically gifted yet raw rookie resulted in a narrow 17-14 loss to the Green Bay Packers, with Daniels throwing for 148 yards with two interceptions and a touchdown. However, his slippery ways as a runner showed with Daniels' 55 yards on eight carries.
Daniels then fared much better as a passer during a stunning road win over the heavily favored Dallas Cowboys in Week 5. The Buccaneers entered as the +9.5 underdogs, and Daniels then completed 76% of his pass attempts for 189 yards and a touchdown. That efficiency also resulted in a QB rating of 110.2
Both that performance and the overall athleticism from Daniels lead to a lot of intrigue. But giving the offensive keys to an undrafted rookie could go sideways fast. That has deeper ramifications too for Bowles, who sits third in the first coach fired odds.
Baker Mayfield injury: Odds impact
The NFL Week 6 odds show the Bucs as only slight underdogs this week. Being at home certainly helps in that regard, as opposed to asking the highly inexperienced Daniels to navigate another tough road environment.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are currently the -2.5 favorite, and that line hasn't moved much since the opening number. The same is true for the already basement-level low total of 40.5, though that did briefly sink lower to 39.5 in some spots.
It's a game that was likely always set to feature a low total and narrow spread just due to the sluggish ways of both offenses, with the Bucs and Steelers ranking 22nd and 19th, respectively, in points per game. But the total will surely inch that much lower if we get further into the week without a Mayfield sighting on the practice field.
The Bucs leaned heavily on their rushing attack last week while logging 39 attempts, and they'll probably take the same approach now, especially if Daniels manages to pace the team to an early lead again. The resulting game script and clock churn will translate to higher prop totals for Bucky Irving, and lower ones for all Bucs pass-catchers. Emeka Egbuka finished with only 38 receiving yards last week.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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