Washington vs Bills Week 3 Picks and Predictions: Football Team Rumbles into Buffalo

Washington Football Team will lean on their running game against a vaunted Buffalo Bills pass defense but will the ground game be enough to cover against one of the AFC's elite? Find out with our picks for a defensive matchup in Orchard Park.

Last Updated: Sep 26, 2021 10:33 AM ET Read Time: 5 min
Antonio Gibson Washington Football Team NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Both the Washington Football Team and Buffalo Bills tasted playoff football last year but they’ve both started the 2021 season with a .500 record.

With Ryan Fitzpatrick out injured, the Football Team will have to rely on their acclaimed defense to defeat Josh Allen and his Buffalo Bills.

It’s not Sunday without reading our free NFL betting picks and predictions, so make sure you’re ready for the Washington Football Team vs. Buffalo Bills and read them now.

Washington vs Bills odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Bills were huge 9.5 point favorites when the lines for this game opened but they’ve dropped down to 7.5 point favorites over the past couple of days. We’ve also seen the over drop by a point from 46.5 to 45.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Washington vs Bills picks

Picks made on 9/23/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Washington vs Bills game info

Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Date: Sunday, September 26, 2021
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Washington at Bills betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.

Key injuries

Washington: Ryan Fitzpatrick QB (Out), Curtis Samuel WR (Out), Matthew Ioannidis DT (Out).
Bills: Efe Obada DE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Washington Football Team are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games following a win. Find more NFL betting trends for Washington vs. Bills.

Washington vs Bills predictions

It really felt like this season could be a coming of age for the Washington Football Team, who’ve improved so much since Ron Rivera arrived in town. Then we saw free agent signing Curtis Samuel go down, followed by Ryan Fitzpatrick. With Fitzpatrick injured, things suddenly started to feel dark again in Washington.

Bills fans also came into the season full of optimism but a Week 1 loss to the Steelers showcased some of the team's flaws, and question marks over possible regression for Josh Allen continued to come from some writers, myself included. A statement victory over the Dolphins has put minds at ease though and they’ll be looking to continue their winning streak on Sunday.

For the Bills to win, they’ll have to find a way to dominate one of the league’s most celebrated defenses. Interestingly, WFT are only ranked 18th in the league in defensive DVOA and have given up 49 points this season to the Chargers, not that surprising, and last week to the Giants, perhaps more surprising. 

Chase Young has had a slow start to the season, only making four solo tackles but linebacker Cole Holcomb and cornerback Kendall Fuller have 11 each, tying them for 21st in the league. It’s actually been 2019 first round pick Montez Sweat that has been WFT’s most dominant DE so far this year, with two sacks, one behind the team’s overall sack leader Jonathan Allen. This defense is packed with talent and will start to play at the level that their reputation suggests very soon.

The Carolina Panthers have been widely praised as having the league’s best defense but the Bills have only given up 11.5 points per game and have the league’s second-ranked defensive DVOA. Buffalo’s main strength has been in pass defense where they rank second in the league giving up just 161 yards per game through the air. That doesn’t bode well for Taylor Heinicke, now thrust into a starting role, despite the fact he managed to put up 336 yards against the Giants on TNF in his first start of the season.

We’re going to see a low-scoring game of football and one which the Bills probably should and probably will win, but WFT will be able to keep this close enough to cover the spread. 

If you’ve read the start of this game preview then you won’t be surprised to know that I’m taking the Under here. We have two very strong defenses, including the second-best in the league, and two QBs, one of which is a backup. 

That’s all I need to know in order to back the Under here but the trends back it up too. The Under is 5-1 in WFT’s last six games after allowing more than 350 total yards in the previous game. Not only that but the Under is 4-1 in the Bills' previous five games as a favorite.

I’m expecting this game to be one for the defensive aficionados and not full of great offense, so let’s take the Under all the way to the bank. 

If you drafted Antonio Gibson at his ADP in your fantasy league then you’ve probably been disappointed so far but good times are coming. Gibson may not have scored a touchdown yet and hasn’t been a feature of the receiving game but he’s still been very effective on the ground.

Gibson has accumulated 159 yards at an average of 4.8 yards per carry and will likely get plenty of carries this Sunday. He’s had to largely split time with J.D. McKissic but this game is set up for Gibson to shine.

We’ve already highlighted how the Bills have allowed the second least yards per game passing but they are only seventh in the league when it comes to stopping the run. For the Football Team to win this game, they’re going to need to put the rock into Antonio Gibson’s hands, so we’ll be taking the Over here.

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