Monday Night Football Computer Picks: Our Best Week 1 Player Prop Projections

An NFC North matchup wraps up Week 1 on MNF, and our computer prop projections forecast success for the Vikings' stars... and a so-so night for Chi-Town.

Jared Hochman - Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Jared Hochman • Content Manager
Sep 8, 2025 • 08:59 ET • 4 min read
Monday Night Football prop projections J.J. McCarthy
Photo By - Imagn Images. Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws a pass during preseason play.

The final game of the Week 1 slate is tonight, with the Bears hosting the Vikes on Monday Night Football.

To better help you make the best Vikings vs. Bears predictions, we've got our best computer picks for MNF player props.

Covers' NFL prop projections are high on J.J. McCarthy in his NFL debut — along with his favorite targets — with very little edge being shown for Chicago.

Vikings vs Bears computer picks for Monday Night Football

Vikings Vikings Vikings Bears
McCarthy Over 221.5 pass yards (-110) Williams Under 220.5 pass yards (-110)
Jones Over 16.5 rec yards (-110) Swift Under 52.5 rush yards (-110)
Jefferson Over 76.5 rec yards (-110) Moore Over 56.5 rec yards (-110)
Hockenson Over 41.5 rec yards (-110) Loveland Over 28.5 rec yards (-110)

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Vikings MNF computer picks

J.J. McCarthy Over 221.5 passing yards (-110)

Projection: 247.5 yards

Covers' prop projections don't expect McCarthy to struggle in his first NFL game, with a projection well above his posted passing line.

Alternate-total bet
250+ yards (+170): Has some value, but it's not a must-play by any means.

Aaron Jones Over 16.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 19.5 yards

Our projections aren't big on Jones' rushing total, but it does like him to top his total catching out of the backfield.

Alternate-total bet
20+ yards (+120): Gain 30 cents for three more receiving yards, although it doesn't offer much value.

Justin Jefferson Over 76.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 82.6 yards

Minny's star receiver should see plenty of action tonight, though our projections don't expect him to blow past his total.

T.J. Hockenson Over 41.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 44.3 yards

Tight ends are the safety blanket for young QBs, and our projections expect Hockenson to finish just above his posted total.


More Monday Night Football picks from Covers


Bears MNF computer picks

Caleb Williams Under 220.5 pass yards (-110)

Projection: 214 yards

Our projections aren't high on Williams tonight, forecasting him to fall just under his passing total.

D'Andre Swift Under 52.5 rushing yards (-110)

Projection: 52.4 yards

It projects to be a so-so night for Swift as he finishes just below his rushing total.

D.J. Moore Over 56.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 58.5 yards

A marginal night for Chicago's likely WR1, with our projections putting him just above his posted line.

Colston Loveland Over 28.5 receiving yards (-110)

Projection: 29 yards

The same goes for the Bears' most recent first-round pick, with the projection right at his receiving yards line.

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Jared Hochman Content Operations Manager at Covers.com
Content Manager

Before Jared Hochman joined the Covers team in 2020, he worked for newspaper outlets such as the Chronicle Herald and The Coast, worked in marketing for SkipTheDishes and Vivid Seats, and previously ran a magazine. A journalism graduate from the University of King's College in, Halifax, N.S., "Hoch" brings more than a decade of experience in sports betting, having worked as a freelance handicapper, making appearances on Monumental Sports Network and the Sharp 600 podcast, and now also filling in occasionally as host of Covers' NHL Puck Props. 

Awarded Covers' company MVP for 2023, Jared is an avid bettor of MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA, while also wagering on some soccer and WNBA. His best advice for sports bettors? Price shop, which is something he does daily across 10 different sportsbook apps.

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