Texans vs Bills Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Don't Fear the Spread, Back Buffalo

Buffalo has shaken off its bizarro Week 1 performance and now looks every bit like the offensive steamroller everyone took it for. Does Houston stand any chance this weekend? Find out with our Texans vs Bills picks.

Last Updated: Sep 30, 2021 2:07 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
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There really shouldn’t be only one win separating these two teams. The Texans got a shock win over Jacksonville in Week 1, the same week as the Bills lost a tight game to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since then, things have reverted to what we expected before the season, the Bills have put in some great performances while the Texans have gone from bad to worse.

You can’t get involved on the action this weekend unless you’ve studied our NFL picks and predictions for the Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills on Sunday, October 3.

Texans vs Bills odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

We’ve seen minor line movement on the Texans vs. Bills. The Bills started as 17.5-point favorites, which has shortened to 16.5. Meanwhile, the points total has dropped from 48 to 47.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Texans vs Bills picks

Picks made on 9/30/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Texans vs Bills game info

Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Texans at Bills betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.

Key injuries

Texans: Tyrod Taylor QB (Out), Deshaun Watson QB (Out), Vincent Taylor DL (Out), Danny Amendola WR (Out), Jordan Jenkins LB (Out).
Bills: Jon Feliciano G (Out), Taron Johnson CB (Out), Jordan Poyer S (Out), Efe Obada DE (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their past 9 games after scoring 30+ points. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Bills.

Texans vs Bills predictions

First things first, I absolutely hate taking a spread as large as this. 16.5 points is a lot for any team to cover and I tried to find arguments to take the Texans’ side of the spread, but I just can’t find any.

The Texans might have the 12th-best defense based on DVOA, but this Bills team is a juggernaut and has the sixth-best team DVOA in the league, ahead of the likes of Tampa Bay and Dallas.

Put simply, this is a very strong team. Only the Broncos, Saints and Panthers have given up fewer points than Buffalo this season, such has been the improvement in their defense.

On offense, they’ve returned to their 2020 form after a poor start for Josh Allen in Week 1. Since then, the Bills have put up 78 points and Allen has thrown for six touchdowns. It feels like this is an offense re-finding its feet and it’s a scary prospect for anybody it faces.

One thing we learned about the Bills last season was that when they click, they become very hard to stop. That already looks like the case this year and I believe that the power in this offense will just snowball from here. There’s at least one trend that backs up the momentous nature of this offense: the Bills are 8-1 ATS in their past nine games after scoring more than 30 points. 

I fully expect them to continue to improve against this Davis Mills-led Texans team who would have collected an incredible offensive roster if it were 2017. Their aging RBBC and their receivers are showing their age, with the team relying heavily on Brandin Cooks. Now that they’re on their third-string QB, it’s going to be even tougher, and Mills only managed 168 passing yards against the Panthers last week.

16.5 points is a lot to give up, but with Josh Allen and the Bills now in full flow, you have to back Buffalo to cover here.

The Bills have put up 43 and 35 points over the past two weeks and, like I’ve already noted, it feels like they’re on a roll. They’re getting hot and that’s only going to continue here. 

This is a great offense that’s nearly at the peak of its powers and won’t have to exert itself much to put on a show against Houston. 

The Texans, for their part, should be able to add a handful of points to help us toward the total, but expect the Bills to do the majority of the damage here. Given just how dominant Buffalo will be it’s hard to bet on anything but the Over.

The Texans haven’t been brilliant against tight ends this season. They gave up seven receptions to the position against the Jaguars in Week 1, 11 against the Browns in week two and improved last week giving up just 3 receptions to tight ends. Regardless of improvement, it looks like a trend. Add that to the fact that only five teams have leaked more yardage to tight ends, and you start to think Dawson Knox could have himself a day.

The Buffalo TE feels like he’s become more of an integral piece of the Bills offense this season. In 2020, he only had three games of 4+ receptions. This year, he’s had two already. He’s scored in his past two games, and given the problems that Houston has had covering tight ends, you’d expect him to be heavily targeted this week. That gives him a very good chance of smashing the Over on 2.5 receptions.

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