Colts vs Dolphins Week 4 Picks and Predictions: Lights Out and Away Indy Goes

The Colts have slogged through a brutal 0-3 start and are the underdogs in Miami this Sunday. With Jacoby Brissett under center for the Dolphins, our picks break down whether Indy can pull off the Week 4 upset.

Last Updated: Sep 30, 2021 2:35 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Carson Wentz Jonathan Taylor Indianapolis Colts NFL
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The 0-3 Colts travel to Hard Rock Stadium to face the 1-2 Dolphins, with both teams currently underperforming the expectations that they had at the start of the season.

Is it too soon to call this an elimination game? It’s going to be difficult for the losing team to work their way back into playoff contention.

As always, you can’t bet on the NFL without first reading our free NFL betting picks and predictions for the Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins.

Colts vs Dolphins odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

When the line opened it saw Miami as 1.5-point favorites, that’s slowly risen with Miami now 2-point favorites. The total has also dropped from 43.5 down to 42.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Colts vs Dolphins picks

Picks made on 9/30/2021 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Colts vs Dolphins game info

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Date: Sunday, October 3, 2021
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Colts at Dolphins betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.

Key injuries

Colts: Khari Willis S (Out), Quenton Nelson G (Out), TY Hilton WR (Out), Kwity Paye DE (Out), Braden Smith T (Out), Rock Ya-Sin CB (Out).
Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa QB (Out), Allen Hurns WR (Out), Michael Deiter C (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The road team is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the Colts and Dolphins. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs. Dolphins.

Colts vs Dolphins predictions

This is crunch time for the Indianapolis Colts. They’ve had a tough schedule to start the season, facing the Seahawks, Rams, and Titans but nobody expected them to be one of the league’s last remaining winless teams as we enter Week 4.

It seems like a crisis, given that this team was a playoff team last year and now they’re fighting to get their first win, but times are about to change.

The Colts’ defense has been solid so far this season, as they’ve forced six turnovers and given their offense the platform that they need, but so far they’ve failed to build upon that.

Only scoring four times in 12 trips of the red zone is bad and this team still looks like they’re trying to find their identity. They still have a great offensive line, even if some of its members are dinged up, but they seem unable to utilize Jonathan Taylor and that’s before we even talk about Carson Wentz. Taylor looked like a monster down the stretch last year and the Colts' unwillingness to lean on him has been perplexing. 

So, what about Carson Wentz? It’s far too soon to draw any long-term conclusions about the trade that took him to Indianapolis, but the offense hasn’t been good enough, averaging just 18.7 points per game.

Fortunately, the Dolphins haven’t been much better. They just about beat the Mac Jones-led Pats in Week 1, but up a doughnut against the Bills in a 35-point loss and lost to the Raiders last week, with former Colt, Jacoby Brissett the starter following Tua Tagovailoa’s injury.

They scored 28 points last week, their best effort of the season, but they couldn’t stop the Raiders who put up 497 yards on offense, averaging 6.1 yards per play. Last year, we saw Miami look defensively solid, but this year it's struggling to find its identity almost as much as the offense did. If Brian Flores had taken this team forward last year, it’s clear that it has taken a firm step back.

The Colts may be missing a real x-factor in their receiver room but they have a fairly solid group, and should they lean on Taylor, then they’ll be in business. That line is one of the best in football and given the strength of the three teams they’ve lost to this season, I’m backing them to not only cover but also outright. A team with this many core pieces will turn it around and they’ll do that against Miami this Sunday.

Despite believing that we’ll see an uptick in the Colts offense this week, you have to take the under. The Dolphins scored just 17 points in their first two weeks, and a big game against the Raiders won’t change my mind into believing that this is an elite team. 

The Under has landed in the Dolphins' previous six Week 4 games and the last five times that they’ve faced a team with a losing record. Likewise, the Under has also landed in five of the past six games when the Colts have faced a team with a losing record.

The Colts will win this game but it’ll be a tight, scrappy, and low-scoring game. 

We’ve only seen one touchdown from Jaylen Waddle but you can see that he’s going to be a real star in the National Football League. The sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft hasn’t exploded like the only receiver drafted ahead of him, Ja’Marr Chase, but he’s showcased his ability and racked up 167 yards through his first three games.

The former Alabama man has his receiving yards line sat at 46.5, a total that he’s exceeded in every game of his short NFL career so far. He’s going to be facing a good defense this Sunday but we’ve seen the likes of Tyler Lockett and Cooper Kupp go off against the Colts already this season.

In Jacoby Brissett’s only full game under center, he led the team in both targets and receptions. He’s already an integral piece of this offense and has Brissett’s trust. The Over looks almost criminally low at this point.

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