NFL favorites had a very fruitful finish last week, going 11-4.
The four faves that did go down did damage to NFL survivor pools, with Philadelphia, Buffalo, Washington, and Dallas erasing a good chunk of contestants.
Covers’ $10K Pro Football Survivor Pool saw more than half of its entries play it safe with Green Bay, which was an uncomfortable ride for 45 minutes until the Packers busted things open versus Cincinnati in the fourth quarter.
Now that the schedule has passed the first third, things get a little trickier. You have injuries impacting outcomes, the weather gets worse, and according to the Super Bowl odds, parity is at a 15-year high.
Here is my best NFL survivor pick for Week 7 as well as the “safest” selection, based on the latest moneyline odds.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 7
New England Patriots
Kansas City Chiefs
My pick: New England Patriots
Opponent: at Tennessee Titans
Moneyline odds: -325 (76.5% implied win probability)
This will be the New England Patriots’ third straight away game, but nothing picks up a road-weary team like revenge.
Former Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel returns to Nashville the same week that Tennessee fired his replacement. Brian Callahan, who followed Vrabel with a 4-19 SU and ATS record, was shown the door Monday.
Vrabel downplayed any hard feelings for his former employer, but behind closed doors, scoring payback for their beloved coach will fuel this young New England squad.
And they might not need much motivation to squash the Titans.
Tennessee is terrible, and New England has played excellent two-way football during their current three-game winning streak.
I don’t expect a “dead cat bounce” from Tennessee in Week 7.
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Safest pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Moneyline odds: -750 (88.24% implied win probability)
The Kansas Chiefs put the word out there that “we back up” with an impressive win over Detroit last Sunday night.
Kansas City’s defense locked down the Lions’ powerful scoring attack, and Patrick Mahomes picked apart a depleted Detroit secondary for a 30-17 victory. On the heels of that resume win, the Las Vegas Raiders roll into Arrowhead for an AFC West war.
Las Vegas was able to beat up on the Titans in Week 6, which snapped a four-game losing skid. However, that doesn’t erase the memory of one-sided beatdowns from the likes of Indianapolis and Washington earlier this year.
Based on the outright price, oddsmakers don’t give the Silver and Black much of a chance against the Chiefs. I will say, divisional rivalries breed familiarity and competition, and KC seems ripe for a letdown.
This “safe” pick may not be sweat-free in Week 7.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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