The health of Patrick Mahomes will determine if the AFC West is a good division or the best division in football in 2026.
The Kansas City QB tries to get his team back atop the conference while Denver and Los Angeles also have high hopes – and high expectations from NFL predictions markets.
Here’s how I see the AFC West shaking out during the 2026 NFL season.
AFC West best picks for 2026
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Broncos – Yes AFC West Winner |
33% |
| Broncos - Yes +10 Wins |
55% |
| Bo Nix – Yes 3,500+ Passing Yards |
53% |
 Chiefs - No AFC West Winners |
66% |
| Patrick Mahomes – Yes 4,000+ Passing Yards |
40% |
 Raiders - Yes 6+ Wins |
56% |
| Brock Bowers – Yes 1,000+ Receiving Yards |
41% |
 Chargers - Yes 10+ Wins |
59% |
| Justin Herbert – Yes 25+ TD Passes |
New |
Read on for Jason's full analysis and AFC West breakdown!
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AFC West odds for 2026
| To win | Broncos |
Chiefs |
Raiders |
Chargers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl | 4% | 6% | 1% | 4% |
| Conference | 9% | 11% | 2% | 11% |
| Division | 33% | 34% | 5% | 32% |
| Make Playoffs | 60% | 65% | 16% | 58% |
Best futures play: Broncos – Yes AFC West Winner (33% probability)AFC West breakdown
Denver Broncos: Horse power
The Denver Broncos get thrown in the deep end to start 2026. The first six games all come versus 2025 playoff qualifiers and Denver is an underdog in five of those outings, including twice at home (7-3 ATS as home pup since 2021). A top-tier defense will earn its paycheck during that span. The Broncos’ pass rush and stellar secondary combined to check rival QBs for the lowest success rate per dropback and a collective passer rating of just 78.7 (fourth lowest).
The Denver offense, which has been vanilla under head coach Sean Payton, gets a dash of spice. Not only did the Broncos give QB Bo Nix a legit No. 1 target in WR Jaylen Waddle but OC Davis Webb is now calling plays, injecting tempo and deeper strikes into the mix. Nix owned the fourth lowest completed air yards among starters in 2025, so any improvement is notable. All of this works behind the best offensive line in the business.
Best Broncos play: Yes +10 Wins (55% probability)Kansas City Chiefs: Bieniemy is back
Patrick Mahomes appears to be on track to return for the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1. He shredded his knee last December and his health and mobility make or break things for KC in 2026. As long as Mahomes is on the field, the Chiefs have the edge at QB and coaching. That goes a long way into squeezing every ounce of talent from a very ho-hum roster. Kansas City isn’t exceptional at any one position group and the team is begging its aging studs to be elite for one more year.
The market is pro-Chiefs, with the win total at 10.5 O/U and look-ahead lines listing Kansas City as a fave in 11 games. The return of OC Eric Bieniemy aims to not only provide pop in the passing game but complement Mahomes with new RB Kenneth Walker, who can get gains on the ground and as a pass catcher. The ceiling for this offense is very high if Bieniemy can keep defenses guessing and avoid the plague of injuries from last year.
Best Chiefs play: No AFC West Winners (66% probability)Las Vegas Raiders: Black and Silver lining
Klint Kubiak parlayed a Super Bowl win into a head coach gig in Sin City, hired to set the tone for the Las Vegas Raiders and their young studs going forward. Rookie QB Fernando Mendoza, RB Ashton Jeanty, TE Brock Bowers and new OL Tyler Linderbaum are the budding base of Vegas’ future. But life in the AFC West doesn’t allow for sunshine, with your three rivals all destined for double-digit wins.
Oddsmakers have the Silver and Black getting points in 14 of 17 outings, with eight of those lines at +6 or higher. However, along the way, the Raiders run into fellow bottom feeders (Miami, N.Y. Jets, Cleveland, Tennessee and Arizona). If promoted DC Rob Leonard can crank up the intensity with a 3-4 base – after years of passive play – and create game-changing plays (sacks, INTs), Las Vegas can be the better of the bad teams.
Best Raiders play: Yes 6+ Wins (56% probability)Los Angeles Chargers: McDaniel makes magic
Mike McDaniel is offensive coordinator No. 5 during Justin Herbert’s career. He brings a speed-focused attack with plenty of pre-snap motion and misdirection to the Los Angeles Chargers. This makes L.A.’s offense far more dynamic, especially after finishing in the bottom third of the league in EPA per play and DVOA in 2025 - despite having a Top 5 QB. The Bolts also get a boost in the red zone from McDaniel’s schemes after logging the third lowest TD RZ rate 2025.
The Chargers defense took a hit with DC Jesse Minter moving on. He was able to get everything out of this group and Los Angeles is hoping protégé Chris O’Leary can keep things consistent. The Bolts are laying points more than any other AFC West team (faves in 12 games) and run a gauntlet from Week 3 to Week 10, playing seven straight playoff qualifiers and at Baltimore on MNF to wrap up that nasty stretch.
Best Chargers play: Yes 10+ Wins (59% probability)My favorite AFC West player props this season
Bo Nix – Yes 3,500+ Passing Yards
Webb does the playcalling and takes the training wheels off Nix in 2026. The addition of Waddle to an underrated receiving corps has Nix projected for as many as 3,700 passing yards.
Patrick Mahomes – Yes 4,000+ Passing Yards
If Kansas City is going to reclaim its place in the AFC, this offense needs to get back to big plays. Bieniemy’s offense unlocked the future HoF QB in his first stint with KC and with the Chiefs defense slowing down, Mahomes needs to do more.
Brock Bowers – Yes 1,000+ Receiving Yards
Bowers played just 12 games in 2025 and couldn’t match his 1,000+ yard rookie campaign. Kubiak’s offense and QBs (young and old) leaning into their TE has his projections calling for as many as 1,200 yards with most forecasts right on 1,000.
Justin Herbert – Yes 25+ TD Passes
The Bolts were dreadful in the red zone last year and Herbert finished with 26 touchdown throws. McDaniel’s systems make this offense less predictable and Herbert is projected for 28 touchdowns in 2026.
AFC West trends to know for 2026
- Broncos: Under head coach Sean Payton the Broncos don’t give up much in AFC West rivalry games. Denver is a collective 6-12 Over/Under in divisional contests since 2023, including 2-7 O/U when hosting an AFC West foe.
- Chiefs: The Chiefs were 2-1 ATS as rare underdogs in 2025, with one of those games coming in Week 17 after Mahomes went down. Since he took over the QB1 role in 2018, Kansas City is 13-9 SU and 15-6-1 ATS when catching points.
- Raiders: Considering the sideline upheaval in Las Vegas since moving to the desert, it’s tough to put any faith in patterns and trends. The Raiders have routinely stunk against non-conference competition, owning a 4-16 SU record and 6-12-2 ATS mark versus NFC foes since 2022. That includes a 0-5 SU and ATS count last year. The powerful NFC West comes calling in 2026.
- Chargers: Under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers have continued on a tradition of coming in Under the total in non-conference games. He’s led the Bolts to a 2-7-1 O/U record (78% Unders) in his two years, improving L.A. to 6-17-2 O/U (74% Unders) in non-conference games since 2021.
AFC West schedule in 2026
| Week (Time ET) | Road | Home |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 (Mon 8:15 p.m.) | Broncos | Chiefs |
| Week 2 (Sun 4:05 p.m.) | Raiders | Chargers |
| Week 4 (Sun 4:25 p.m.) | Chiefs | Raiders |
| Week 5 (Sun 4:05 p.m.) | Broncos | Chargers |
| Week 6 (Sun 4:25 p.m.) | Chargers | Chiefs |
| Week 8 (Sun 4:25 p.m.) | Chiefs | Broncos |
| Week 11 (Sun 4:25 p.m.) | Raiders | Broncos |
| Week 14 (Sun 4:05 p.m.) | Chargers | Raiders |
| Week 15 (Sun 4:25 p.m.) | Broncos | Raiders |
| Week 17 (Sun TBD) | Chiefs | Chargers |
| Week 18 (TBD) | Chargers | Broncos |
| Week 18 (TBD) | Raiders | Chiefs |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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