NFL Week 9 Survivor Picks: Dolphins Can Navigate Week 9

We gather here today to mourn the fallen. 

With a 34-31 upset win over Cincinnati, the New York Jets went full Thanos and wiped out nearly half the population of NFL Survivor Pools last Sunday. The Bengals were the popular selection of the entire season, with almost 46 percent of poolies making them their best survivor pool pick. 

Then… SNAP!

I was among the dusted, putting an end to my seven-week streak of “safe” selections. In fact, last Sunday was a survivor pool slaughter, with my “smart” pick on the Browns going down and my “team to avoid” winning by 24 points. 

But even with my survivor entries in the toilet, I’m obligated to keep this weekly piece rolling from beyond the grave. Follow or fade: these are my NFL Week 9 survivor pool picks.

My pick: Miami Dolphins

There are much safer selections on the board in Week 9 (we’ll get to those) but now that we’re crossing the midway mark of the schedule, you’ve got to roll the dice if you want to save some of those heavyweights for the home stretch and burn up some bad teams when you can. 

While the Dolphins are a bad team, they’re not as bad as the Texans, and Miami enters this Week 9 toilet bowl with an implied win probability of 73.68 percent – fifth-highest projection on the board. The Fins have lost seven in a row behind an offense puttering out just over 17 points per game. Luckily, Houston is hemorrhaging scores to the tune of 30.1 points allowed an outing. 

Why is this a smart pick, you ask. If you look above Miami on the win probability chart, you’ll likely find some teams you’ve already used up or some you should save. Indianapolis is a tempting take versus the Jets Thursday, but the Colts still have two games with Jacksonville and one more against Houston. Dallas is also looking good hosting Denver, but plays on Thanksgiving – a separate slate in some survivor pools.

It’s smarter to swim with the Dolphins in Week 9 than the survivor pool sharks later on. 

Safe pick: Buffalo Bills

If you still have the Bills in your back pocket by this point in the season, and you’re a bit spooked after what happened to the Bengals last week, then Buffalo is a nice safe survivor pool pick in Week 9 – like ordering a clubhouse sandwich. You know what you’re going to get.

The Bills boast an implied win probability of 91.67 percent visiting the Jaguars – the biggest win percentage of the week - yet aren’t the most popular survivor pick among poolies heading into the weekend, with 15 percent of Week 9 selections banking on Buffalo. 

So far in 2021, teams with a win probability of 90.91 percent (-1,000 moneyline odds) or higher are 5-0 with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. The Bills are responsible for two of those wins, including a 40-0 blasting of Houston back in Week 4.

Here’s a look at the Top 5 favorites, in terms of moneyline odds and implied probability, for Week 9:

Odds above current at time of publish. Check live NFL moneyline odds and use our odds converter to convert any line to implied probability. 

Team to avoid: New Orleans Saints

Not only are the Saints ripe for a letdown after a huge win over Tampa Bay in Week 8, but New Orleans looks like it’s sending either Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian under center (or a combo of the two if Hill is clear of concussion protocol) with QB1 Jameis Winston lost for the season.

The Falcons don’t look that dangerous, especially after another bad loss at home (19-13 defeat to Carolina in Week 8). However, this team has played well on the road with all three wins coming away from Atlanta. 

NOLA has won six of the past seven run-ins with the Dirty Birds and owns an implied win percentage of 72.22 percent for this Sunday’s meeting. The Saints are drawing more than four percent of survivor pool picks in Week 9 – seventh-most popular – and have the seventh-highest projected win percentage. 

Still, those QB questions linger, and there are better survivor pool picks beyond New Orleans in Week 9.

2021 survivor pool pick results

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