Nothing lasts forever, and we both know hearts can change. And it's hard to hold a candle in the cold November rain.
Axl Rose may not know shit about NFL betting, but he sure knows about good things going bad.
For NFL bettors, that candle has been underdog profits, with teams getting the points going 67-53-1 ATS so far this season (56%).
Since 2010, NFL underdogs have covered 54 percent of the time between Week 1 and Week 8 of the schedule, including a scorching 10-4-1 ATS mark for pointspread pups last week.
Once the calendar flips to Week 9, however, and the cold November rain moves in, those thriving underdog NFL picks wither, covering at just a 49 percent clip for the remainder of the season.
There are a couple reasons for this change in fortune for NFL underdogs. The undervalued teams that caught bookies by surprise in the opening half of the schedule are now valued correctly. And the bad teams – which make up the bulk of underdogs each week – are often worse come November, as the season has slipped away and players, coaches and the front office folks start looking ahead to next year.
But, as Axl sang, “never mind the darkness, we still can find a way”. That brings us to our Week 9 NFL Underdogs picks. Because nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain.
NFL Underdogs Week 9 picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals pick
The optics for the Browns aren’t great. They dropped to 4-4 after a listless 15-10 home loss to Pittsburgh in Week 8 – the team’s third loss in the last four outings – on top of the very public infighting with a disgruntled diva receiver.
A skid like that would buckle most teams, but talent has a way of turning things around. And you’d be hard-pressed to find a more talented team – on both sides of the ball – than the Browns. Winning is an instant fix to make everything right and head coach Kevin Stefanski told the media his squad is desperate for a victory in Week 9 – like their lives depended on it.
The big edge for the Browns in Week 9 is this defense, specifically the pass rush. Cleveland is third in sacks (22), fourth in QB hits (31) and fifth in pressure rate (27.9%), setting its sights on an unsteady Cincinnati O-line.
Myles Garrett is the most dangerous defender Cincy has faced all year and fellow D-line starters Jadeveon Clowney and Malik Jackson (both questionable) are hopeful to be in action after suiting up in Week 8 and a light week of practice.
The Bengals’ pass protection ranks 23rd in adjusted sack rate (7.4%) at Football Outsiders and owns a pass block win rate of 53 percent (23rd). The Bengals allowed QB Joe Burrow to suffer three sacks in the upset loss to the Jets in Week 8, bringing the season total to 20 (8th-most).
Cincinnati has thrived on big plays from Burrow and his speedy targets, with 34 passes of 20 yards or more and an AFC-best 10 plays of 40-plus. But if the Browns can collapse the pocket quickly, those home runs won’t have time to develop. Cleveland will also have top corner Denzel Ward patrolling the secondary after missing last Sunday.
The underdog has been the smart play in this series, going 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these Ohio rivals. The Bengals have been the dog in each of those games. Now, with the roles reverse and the Browns fighting for their lives, we’ll catch the points with Cleveland.
PICK: Cleveland +2.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings (+6) at Baltimore Ravens pick
I’m one of the few believers that the Vikings are going to get this shit right. This team should not be 3-4 on the season and definitely shouldn’t be 6-point underdogs in Week 9. Well, maybe…
Minnesota blew a layup in Dallas on Halloween night, letting the Cowboys rally in the second half behind a backup QB for a 20-16 last-minute victory. It was their fourth game – win or lose – decided by four points or less and the sixth one-score outing through eight contests.
The offense is a bag of cats, littered with playmakers but not making any plays. They’re seventh in average yards per game but 20th in points per play. The passing attack ranks No. 7 in DVOA but a ho-hum 17th in EPA per dropback (+0.117) – sinking to -0.029 since Week 4.
So why the hell would I pick the Vikings and the points in Week 9? I’ll be honest, some of it has to do with a lackluster week for underdogs (I’m not in love with many pups in Week 9). But the bulk of that optimism is based on potential for the Purple People Eaters.
The Vikes defense came into 2021 with the bar set high, and after a slow start to the schedule, the stop unit is finding its form. Minnesota has climbed to No. 4 in Defensive DVOA and, since Week 4, owns an EPA per play allowed of -0.108 – third-lowest in the league. The defense did take a loss with Danielle Hunter going down for the season, but they’ve played without the injury-prone LB in the past.
Offensively, Kirk Cousins & Co. have their work cut out for them against Ravens defensive coordinator Don Martindale, who has had two weeks to cook up some of his trademark schemes for this Minnesota attack thanks to the Week 8 bye.
That said, Baltimore isn’t the stingy stop unit it used to be (24th in DVOA on the year) and is susceptible to potent passing games, which the Vikings have. The Ravens have given up 8.8 yards per completion to opponents the past three games and sit 24th in EPA per play allowed in that span (+0.117).
Baltimore has been in nearly as many close games as the Vikings, with four of its seven outings being decided by six points or less. That’s good enough for me, with Minnesota catching a cool six points this Sunday.
PICK: Minnesota +6 (-110)
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+1) pick
When you’re siding with snake-bitten San Francisco over some other NFL underdogs, you know it’s a rough week. But the Niners are home after putting a four-game slide to bed with a 33-22 win in Chicago and take on a hobbled Kyler Murray, who’s nursing an ankle injury in Week 9.
The 49ers are hoping to have All-World TE George Kittle back in action this Sunday, and crossing their fingers that WR Deebo Samuel and RB Elijah Mitchell (their two best offensive players so far) can overcome injuries and suit up for this key NFC West war.
San Francisco is better than its 3-4 record would indicate, with three of those four losses coming by a single score, including a 17-10 loss at Arizona in Week 5. The Niners out-yarded the Cardinals in that matchup (338 to 304) despite having rookie QB Trey Lance under center, and owned possession to the tune of 31:54.
The 49ers missed out on some scoring chances in Week 5, but still boast a potent red-zone attack, with a TD percentage of 78.95 (best in the league) and an offense ranked No. 2 in DVOA when inside their opponents’ 20-yard line.
And with a spread this close, San Fran fans will be happy to know that kicker Robbie “Good As” Gould is back in action after replacement Joey Slye finished 2 for 4 on extra points in three games. Every little bit counts.
PICK: San Francisco +1 (-110)
Last week: 2-1 ATS +0.82 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 16-8 ATS +6.25 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
