The Buccaneers visit the Bears for Sunday Night Football in a pivotal Week 9 matchup. Our Buccaneers vs. Bears best bets feature a side to target, a moneyline pick, and player props covering the passing game, receiving production, and anytime touchdowns.
Here are our favorite angles for tonight's matchup at Soldier Field, which kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 8, at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Sunday Night Football predictions: Buccaneers vs Bears
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Bears moneyline |
72% |
 Buccaneers +6.5 |
52% |
| Caleb Williams 250+ passing yards - No |
53% |
| Baker Mayfield 19+ completions |
53% |
| Luther Burden III 24+ longest reception |
54% |
| Bucky Irving anytime touchdown |
46% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Buccaneers vs Bears?
Get our Buccaneers vs. Bears moneyline pick from betting analyst Trevor Knapp via his Week 9 NFL moneyline picks.
Our prediction: Bears to win — Yes (72%)
I love the Bucs' ground attack, but the Bears are coming off a statement win in Seattle, and the addition of Jeffery Simmons has this defense looking for real. Chicago hasn't trailed in any of the three games since Caleb Williams returned from his hamstring injury, and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday night.
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Sunday Night Football spread prediction
Our prediction: Buccaneers +6.5 — Yes (52%)
NFL Senior Betting Analyst Jason Logan likes Tampa Bay to cover the spread in his Buccaneers vs. Bears prediction.
The Bears are on a short week after playing Monday Night Football, while Tampa Bay has won three of its last four games, with the lone loss coming in overtime. Todd Bowles' defense has improved, posting strong EPA and DVOA numbers, and the Buccaneers have a Top 5 rushing attack that has helped them dominate possession.
More Buccaneers vs Bears picks from Covers
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Sunday Night Football player props
Passing prop: Caleb Williams 250+ passing yards — No (53%)
Jason Logan's featured prop in his Buccaneers vs. Bears prediction targets a modest passing-yard total for the Chicago quarterback.
Tampa Bay has handed the ball off on 53.5% of its snaps over the last four games and ranks No. 1 in time of possession during that span. The Buccaneers also allow the seventh-fewest explosive passes, while opponents average just 6.6 yards per attempt in depth of target, the lowest mark in the NFL. Williams is projected for 237 passing yards, with some projections as low as 202.
Passing prop: Baker Mayfield 19+ completions — Yes (53%)
Geoff Clark backs Mayfield to reach 19 completions in his Buccaneers vs. Bears player props.
Clark is fading Mayfield's recent numbers after his return from injury. Mayfield had at least 21 completions in each of his first two games before dislocating his thumb in Week 3. With Chicago favored, Tampa Bay could need to throw more than usual, giving Mayfield a path to clear this modest completion line.
Receiving prop: Luther Burden III 24+ yards longest reception — Yes (54%)
Clark also likes the Chicago rookie to break off a reception of at least 24 yards.
Burden has cleared this number in three of Caleb Williams' five games. His versatility and ability to create yards after the catch give him multiple ways to get there. Tampa Bay has allowed the most yards after completion in the league and has missed the fourth-most tackles, creating an appealing matchup for the rookie receiver.
Check out Geoff Clark's full Buccaneers vs. Bears player prop picks for his complete breakdown.
Buccaneers anytime touchdown prop: Bucky Irving — Yes (46%)
Sam Farley is backing Irving to find the end zone in his Buccaneers vs. Bears anytime touchdown column.
With just a single touchdown across the opening four weeks of the season, it looked like Bucky Irving might have some TD regression this year, but he's scored five in the four games since. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have leaned into the run, with him getting 91 carries in that time, though weather impacted one of those games.
He's not just a running back; he's also a receiver, with a 16% target share with Baker Mayfield this season, compared to just 6.4% without him. Even with Kenneth Gainwell getting a lot of work, Irving still recorded 67 rushing yards over expected and forced 10 missed tackles last week. He's the man to be backing in this offense.
For more touchdown angles, check out our full Buccaneers vs. Bears touchdown picks.
Buccaneers vs Bears live markets explained
Kalshi event contracts can be bought and sold as the Buccaneers vs. Bears unfolds, meaning traders aren't necessarily locked into their original pregame position.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Buccaneers vs Bears prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will the Buccaneers beat the Bears?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. Kalshi instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Buccaneers vs. Bears position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Buccaneers vs Bears at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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