The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET (NFL Network) for their final preseason game against the Buffalo Bills.
While it's unclear if (and for how long) either team will play its starters, Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite and my Steelers vs. Bill prediction and NFL picks are backing Joe Brady to win a third straight preseason game.
Steelers vs Bills prediction
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Who will win Steelers vs Bills: Bills -2.5
The Buffalo Bills are 2-0 and have outscored opponents 60-21in Joe Brady's first preseason at the helm.
Though Brady did say, "There will be some guys who are starters that are going to be playing in the game," backing Buffalo to cover against the Pittsburgh Steelers is all about the backup. Ninth-year vet Kyle Allen has been efficient behind center for the Bills, putting up a spectacular 96.2% adjusted completion percentage and committing zero turnover-worthy plays.
Allen has had support from his backfield, too, with running backs Ray Davis, Ian Wheeler, and Frank Gore Jr. combining to rush for 231 yards and three scores this preseason. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's young and inexperienced backups on offense could struggle to keep up.
Drew Allar and Will Howard both struggled in a loss last week and will likely see the bulk of the snaps again. Allar was sacked three times and had an adjusted completion percentage of just 56.5%, while Howard had two turnover-worthy plays.
The loss took Mike McCarthy's preseason record since 2020 to 5-10.
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Steelers vs Bills Over/Under pick: Over 35.5
In Brady's three preseasons as the Bills' offensive coordinator/head coach, Buffalo's average final game total has been 41. Only once in those eight games has the game total hit a number below 35.5, and with the way Allen and Buffalo's running back room has played this preseason, the high-scoring should continue.
Buffalo's found reliable playmakers in its running backs, as well as veteran receivers Trent Sherfield and Mecole Hardman Jr., with rookie Ja'Mori Maclin providing a big-play threat.
Those receivers could put in work in the second half against a Steelers third- and fourth-string secondary full of undrafted rookies who were torched by the New York Jets late in Week 2.
Pittsburgh's offensive depth is less proven, but if Allar or Howard can settle in, the Steelers' pass catching depth could shine. Rookies Germie Bernard and Kaden Wetjen have made splashy plays while veterans Robert Tonyan and Ben Skowronek have been consistent threats.
Buffalo has allowed 22.3 PPG across its last three preseasons.
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Steelers vs Bills weather
There's a chance weather has an impact in Buffalo on Thursday night, with the forecast calling for rain earlier in the day and the potential for thunderstorms around 8 p.m. ET. In wet conditions (and a delay due to thunderstorms) last week, the Bills still managed to win 31-7.
How to watch Steelers vs Bills
| Location | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date | Thursday, Aug. 27, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
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