Russell Wilson Odds and SNF Props: Minnesota Mauled Through the Air

Russell Wilson has improved dramatically after a rough start to the Sean Payton era in Denver, and our NFL betting picks believe he'll have no trouble solving the Vikings' shoddy stop unit on Sunday night.

Nov 19, 2023 • 18:06 ET • 4 min read
Russell Wilson Denver Broncos NFL
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It’s time to turn our eyes onto Sunday Night Football and the Week 11 matchup between the Vikings and Broncos. On the face of it, this isn’t box-office viewing, but it should be an interesting matchup at Mile High between the Joshua Dobbs-led Vikings and a Russell Wilson-led Broncos, who are improving week after week. 

Will Russ cook or will the Russ bus get a flat tire? Let’s take a look at the best bet possible on “Mr. Unlimited” in the SNF odds and provide a same-game parlay focused on the Russell Wilson odds as we discuss our free NFL picks for Week 11.

For more SNF analysis, check out Jason Logan’s full Vikings vs. Broncos preview, as well as Jeremy Jones’ favorite SNF props.

Russell Wilson SNF prop picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Russell Wilson SNF prop pick

Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+165)

Russell Wilson wasn’t just bad last season, he was awful. After Sean Payton arrived at Mile High, many thought there’d be an instant uptick for Wilson, but it wasn’t to be. The Broncos lost their opening three games even though Wilson threw three touchdown passes and had a QB rating of over 100 in two of the three games.

But over the past month or so, something has changed for the Broncos. The special teams unit has been excellent, the defense is finally beginning to play at the level that their talent should have them playing at, and the offense is really starting to click. Since Week 6m when they narrowly lost to the Chiefs, they’ve been unbeaten, winning games against the Packers and Bills before avenging their loss to Kansas City.

Part of that has been how well Wilson has been playing and the situations that Payton has helped formulate for his QB. Wilson has thrown six touchdown passes in the past three games despite not putting up huge yardage, as he’s not broken the 200-yard mark once since Week 4. However, his QB ratings in the past three weeks have been 98.9, 119.3, and 117.4, respectively.

Given that he’s averaged two touchdowns per game in the past three weeks, we’re going to back him to do the same here and throw at least two TD passes. He’s thrown 18 such passes through nine games this season, again keeping that average of two per game going, and he’s already thrown two more touchdowns than he did all last season.

Now the Broncos welcome the Vikings to Mile High, and if there’s one team that you want to fade when you’ve backed the QB to throw two touchdown passes, it’s the Vikings. They’re 20th in preventing passing scores this year.

With the performances we’ve seen from “Mr. Unlimited” in the past few weeks and the season as a whole, we can be confident in him throwing two TD passes at a big +165 price against the Vikings’ defense.

Prop: Russell Wilson Over 1.5 passing TDs (+165 at bet365)

Russell Wilson SNF same-game parlay

Russell Wilson Over 1.5 passing TDs

Javonte Williams Over 2.5 receptions

Javonte Williams anytime TD

We have a same-game parlay for SNF built around Russell Wilson and it comes in at a big +750.

After starting with our best bet, we’re going to back Javonte Williams to catch Over 2.5 of Wilson’s passes. Williams has played so well for the Broncos recently and his ability in the passing game is one of the main reasons why. He’s had at least three targets in all but one game that he’s played this season, and in the past three weeks he’s had 10 receptions from 11 targets. We can be confident in his getting 2.5 here.

Finally, we’re also going to back the former North Carolina man to score a touchdown. It took Williams until Week 8 to score his first TD of the season as he worked his way back from last year’s horrific injury, but he’s playing at such a high level and it’s noticeable that the past two weeks have seen him get a bigger workload with over 20 carries in each game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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