The biggest mistake most football bettors make is placing all their wagers on gameday.
More often than not, those spreads and totals look very different from what we saw hit the board when odds opened on Sunday night.
Back up your NFL Week 15 picks with the best of the number, which means betting some of those lines now and waiting to buy back movement later.
Here are my favorite “Bet Now, Bet Later” lines for NFL picks for Week 15.
NFL predictions: Week 15 bet now, bet later picks
- Bills at Patriots (+1.5): Bet Now
- Dolphins (+3) at Steelers: Bet Later
- Jets at Jaguars (Under 42.5): Bet Now
- Packers at Broncos (Over 41.5): Bet Later
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+1.5): Bet Now
This is the marquee game in the AFC this week, with the New England Patriots trying to protect their lead atop the AFC East.
New England is coming off a bye with two weeks to scheme for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills – yet opened as short home dogs in Week 15. We’re already seeing the vig on Buffalo -1.5 get discounted to EVEN money, and it wouldn't surprise me if this hit pick’em soon and closed with the Pats as slim home chalk.
The Bills escaped a wintery war with the Bengals on Sunday, needing takeaways and Allen to go “God Mode” once again. This Buffalo defense is doo-doo, allowing 25 first downs and six yards per play to Cincinnati at home in Week 14.
This will also be the Bills' third road game in the last four weeks.
New England is much stiffer defensively and can lean into its ground game to dominate the football, methodically move the chains, and keep Allen on the sidelines.
This is the biggest game in recent history for New England, and it would secure Coach of the Year for Mike Vrabel.
Best odds to bet Patriots +1.5 right now
Miami Dolphins (+3) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Bet Later
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ win at Baltimore looks more impressive than the Miami Dolphins taking a road win over the Jets (with a rookie QB under center most of the game).
Public sentiment is shifting the key number of a field goal to Pittsburgh -3.5 for Monday Night Football in Week 15. And considering how the lines have moved away from the Dolphins just about every week, this spread still has moves to make.
Perception and a dinged-up De'Von Achane (expected to play on MNF) could push this further to Miami +4 or maybe even +4.5, with prime-time games often drawing heavy money on the favorite.
Pittsburgh barely got by Baltimore thanks to an overturned TD with less than three minutes remaining. The Steelers were upside down in the box score, allowing more than 400 yards to the Ravens. The Fins, on the other hand, have been a surprise, winning four in a row and five of their last six (4-2 ATS).
The “Million Dollar Man” Ted DiBiase infamously said, “Everybody’s got a price.” If this spread keeps ticking up, I might have one on Miami.
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New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (Under 42.5): Bet Now
Tyrod Taylor isn’t showing up on any MVP ballots, but his worth to this New York Jets offense was on full display in Week 14.
After kickstarting the attack as QB1 the previous two games, the veteran quarterback went down with a groin injury early into New York’s loss to Miami. Gang Green looked absolutely lost with rookie Brady Cook at the wheel, allowing him to get sacked six times along with two interceptions.
The Jets are now traveling to face a fierce Jacksonville Jaguars defense in Week 15. Jacksonville is a Top 10 stop unit in many advanced metrics and has held three of its last four foes to 19 points or less.
As for the Jaguars offense, there could be a bit of a letdown waiting next Sunday. The team is coming off a massive win over Indianapolis in which it scored 36 points, thanks to turnovers setting the table with excellent field position.
This total is already ticking down to the key number of 41, so if you like the Under, you should snatch all the points you can right now. Groin injuries take time to heal, and any updates on Taylor will tank this total.
Best odds to bet Under 42.5 right now
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (Over 41.5): Bet Later
This non-conference clash will be hyped as a battle of two of the toughest defenses in the league. Or at least, that’s what the total tells us.
The Denver Broncos have limited foes to 24 points or less in regulation in each of their last six games. The Green Bay Packers have checked their last six opponents to that same bar since Week 9.
This Over/Under is one of the shortest on the Week 15 board and sits a half-point hook above the key number of 41. I’d like to see how the market moves before making a wager on the total.
If this number goes to 41 or lower later in the week, I see value coming back on the Over.
Green Bay has been one of the most efficient offenses in the league in the second half of the schedule, and after two straight road games, Denver gets to come back home, where it averages more than 26 points per game (compared to 21.6 as a visitor).
The weather looks clear, according to the extended forecast for Mile High, with unseasonable warmth expected on Sunday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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