Week 17 used to keep NFL bettors up at night.
The former final week of the schedule was a mixed bag of motivation. Teams continued to push for the playoffs while others packed it in. Postseason-bound clubs rested starters as non-qualifiers planned for next season, kicking the tires on talent. You didn’t know what you were going to get.
But with the 2021 campaign stretched to 18 weeks of NFL betting action and the recent expansion of the tournament, Week 17 is the ugly duckling of the wagering world: emerging as a beautiful betting swan with unique angles and edges to measure when combing the NFL odds.
COVID has complicated things, but with the league constantly moving the goalposts on its pandemic position, teams have a much greater shot at getting key bodies back on the field this Sunday.
We welcome the new-look Week 17 with open arms – or at least with a “bro nod” from a safe 6-foot distance – and dive into our favorite picks getting the points in the latest edition of NFL Underdogs.
NFL picks against the spread for Week 17
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team (+3.5) pick
The Eagles knew the second half of the schedule was going to lighten up but didn’t think it would be this light.
Philadelphia has won four of its past five contests (three of those at home), taking victories over a slew of bottom-rung QBs, leaving names like Trevor Siemian, Zach Wilson, Garrett Gilbert, and Jake Fromm/Mike Glennon in its wake.
The Eagles face Washington for the second time in less than two weeks this Sunday. Philadelphia scored a fugly 27-17 win over the WFT in Week 15, with the game pushed to Tuesday due to a COVID outbreak in Washington which left the Football Team to go with a third-stringer under center. Philadelphia actually trailed 10-0 to start that first meeting and was locked in a three-point game halfway through the fourth quarter.
The Eagles’ rushing attack punished Washington in that December 21 matchup, running 41 times for 238 yards. This time around, Philly could have blown tires on that ground game with RB Miles Sanders out with a broken hand, Jordan Howard nursing a stinger, and Kenny Gainwell limited with an ankle injury. On top of that, dual-threat QB Jalen Hurts continues to deal with a bum ankle of his own.
Washington is mired in a three-game skid, but those two most recent losses have come in strange circumstances. The Football Team finally gets a regular week of rest and prep, and head coach Ron Rivera is not one to back down quietly – regardless of what the standings say.
This trip to D.C. is the Eagles’ first road trip in almost a month and Taylor Heinicke is by far the best quarterback this Philadelphia defense has had to deal with since facing Justin Herbert in Week 9. The Football Team is not as bad as its slump would indicate – especially the 56-14 thrashing dealt last Sunday – and we’ll grab all the points being cooked up by that public perception.
PICK: Washington +3.5 (-115)
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys pick
The lookahead line for this monster NFC meeting was Dallas -3 before the Cowboys hung 56 points on a tired and busted Washington team playing its second road game in five days last Sunday night. While Dallas looked dominant on both sides of the ball in that win, it was tough not to, considering what the WFT went through.
Much like their NFC East counterparts in Philadelphia, the Cowboys have enjoyed less-than-stellar opposition under center during their four-game winning streak, in which they own an NFL-best EPA allowed per play of -0.328.
Washington QB Taylor Heinicke isn’t terrible, but he’s been forced to play from behind in both of those recent matchups with Dallas – making the playbook one-dimensional. The Cowboys have also taken on the Glennon/Fromm combo as well as Taysom Hill playing with an injured throwing hand.
Arizona QB Kyler Murray is a major step up in competition for this Dallas defense, despite his recent downturn, and the Cardinals come to Jerry’s World soaked in desperation after losing three in a row. Arizona is clinging to the No. 5 spot in the NFC standings and this road trip could be just what the Cardinals need, having played their best football away from the desert this season (7-1 ATS as visitors).
It’s been a while since Dallas has played some stiffer competition (facing spreads of -6.5, -6.5, -11.5, and -10 the past four games) and we’re selling America’s Team high after that primetime blowout and buying Arizona low in a must-win spot.
PICK: Cardinals +5.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos (+6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
With the New Year upon us, the Chargers may hold the title of most disappointing team of 2021. The Bolts started the season strong with a 4-1 SU spark but have since gone 4-6 SU (3-7 ATS), including back-to-back losses heading into this home finale against the Broncos.
Denver has backup QB Drew Lock under center once again in Week 17, which is why this spread may seem a bit inflated considering the Chargers’ recent lumps… like giving up 41 points to the Texans.
Sure, the team was dealing with COVID outbreaks on both sides of the ball last Sunday, but this stop unit has been crap since mid-October (23rd in EPA allowed per play since Week 6) and allowed 28 points to Denver back in Week 12.
Lock doesn’t have to do too much to fill the shoes of QB1 Teddy Bridgewater and had a safe and solid effort in last week’s loss to Las Vegas, passing for 153 yards on 15 for 22 attempts with no touchdowns but more importantly, no interceptions.
Expect to see a lot of touches from Broncos RBs Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, with the Bolts budging for 4.7 yards per carry and ranking No. 32 in run defense DVOA at Football Outsiders. Denver’s offensive pace – 27th slowest in the league (29.38 plays per second) – will chow down on time of possession like Xmas dinner leftovers and leave L.A. little time with the football which means fewer opportunities to cover this spread.
PICK: Broncos +6.5 (-110)
Last week: 2-1 ATS +0.82 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 25-23 ATS -0.64 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
