The New England Patriots can hide from an embarrassing loss all the way in Munich, Germany when they face the Detroit Lions in Week 10.
New England was blown away by Green Bay at home, and now faces another NFC North opponent in this international affair, with Detroit laying less than a field goal inside Allianz Arena.
My early Patriots vs. Lions prediction takes the pulse of this non-conference contest, giving early leans and NFL picks for Sunday morning's matchup on Nov. 15.
Patriots vs Lions predictions
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Early Patriots vs Lions spread pick: Lions -2.5
I’m going to lean to the early favorite below a field-goal spread.
The New England Patriots have had a tough time locking down elite offenses, giving up a pile of points to Green Bay, Jacksonville, Chicago, and Buffalo already this season.
The Pats’ blitz-centric schemes aren’t getting the pressure they need to hide what has become a problem in the pass defense.
New England entered Week 9’s matchup with the Packers allowing far too many big plays through the air and were absolutely exposed, with Jordan Love striking for almost 400 yards. The Patriots sit second in explosive plays allowed, with 32 passes of 20+ yards against.
The Detroit Lions have suffered a bit of a power outage in recent weeks, but Jared Goff is among the best QBs at breaking down the blitz, rated No. 2 at PFF.
There are also injuries stacking up for New England on both sides of the ball, compounding what has already been a snake-bitten season. Those ailments are tough to remedy when you’re playing 4,000 miles from home.
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Early Patriots vs Lions total pick: Under 50.5
Plenty of those injuries to New England’s depth chart reside on the offensive line. Left tackle Will Campbell is the latest casualty, leaving Week 9 with a bum knee.
The Patriots’ thinning pass protection has thrown quarterback Drake Maye into the fire. He’s been sacked nine times in the last three games, with four coming on Sunday.
Detroit’s defense is second overall in sacks (27) and ranks among the Top 10 teams in pressure rate and pass rush win rate at ESPN. The Lions were giving up a pile of points to start the season but have checked their last four foes to 21 points or less.
As for the Detroit offense, it’s throttled down quite a bit from its explosive start to the schedule. The Lions lit up the scoreboard for 164 points in the opening five games but have put up tallies of 19, 19, and 20 points in their last three outings. However, we’re still seeing Detroit draw tall totals, like the one in Munich.
There’s nothing like getting up early on a Sunday morning to cheer for the Under.
Patriots vs Lions odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Patriots vs Lions spread: Lions -2.5
- Patriots vs Lions moneyline: Patriots 41%, Lions 59%
- Patriots vs Lions Over/Under: 50.5
How to watch Patriots vs Lions
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 15, 2026, 9:30 a.m. ET
- City: Munich, Germany
- Venue: Allianz Arena
- TV: NFL Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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