We’re heading into Week 15 looking for a bounce-back after a rough 4–10 ATS showing last week — not ideal, and I owe you that honesty. But the board is far more actionable this time around, and there are several matchups the market hasn’t fully tightened up on yet.
I’ve gone through every matchup, every line move, and every edge to bring you my Week 15 NFL picks against the spread for all 16 games on the slate.
Week 15 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Falcons vs  Buccaneers |
(-4.5) |
 Raiders vs  Eagles |
(-11.5) |
 Commanders vs  Giants |
(-2.5) |
 Chargers vs  Chiefs |
(+4.5) |
 Browns vs  Bears |
(+6.5) |
 Cardinals vs  Texans |
(-9.5) |
 Jets vs  Jaguars |
(-11.5) |
 Ravens vs  Bengals |
(-2.5) |
 Bills vs  Patriots |
(-1.5) |
 Panthers vs  Saints |
(+2.5) |
 Colts vs  Seahawks |
(-13.5) |
 Lions vs  Rams |
(+5.5) |
 Titans vs  49ers |
(-12.5) |
 Packers vs  Broncos |
(-2.5) |
 Vikings vs  Cowboys |
(-6.5) |
 Dolphins vs  Steelers |
(-3.5) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 12-9.
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Expert Week 15 NFL ATS picks
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: Buccaneers (-4.5)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers let a very winnable game slip away last week vs. the Saints, and I don't see that happening again. The Falcons have been checked out for about a month now, and the Bucs may be getting reinforcements back with Mike Evans possibly suiting up.
Raiders vs. Eagles: Eagles (-11.5)
The Eagles had every chance to beat the Chargers on MFN and blew it with sloppy play and costly turnovers. Barring a last-second, rigged score from the Raiders, I don't see them having the horses to keep this game close.
Commanders vs. Giants: Giants (-2.5)
Neither team should want to win this game, but one of them has to, so I'll take the team coming off a bye week and not a 31-0 road loss.
Chargers vs. Chiefs: Chargers (+4.5)
I think it's time to stick a fork in the Chiefs' season. They don't look in sync, and the Chargers continue to luck their way to wins. I can see this game coming down to the wire so grab the +4.5 and call it a day.
Browns vs. Bears: Browns (+7.5)
Call me crazy, but the Browns showed plenty in their game against the Titans. Shedeur Sanders looked like he belonged, and he's not exactly going up against the '85 Bears defense. I'll grab the points here with the better defense.
Cardinals vs. Texans: Texans (-9.5)
If the Cardinals thought the sledding was tough against the Rams' D, wait until they see the Texans' stop unit. I'm done sleeping on the Texans. This will be a blowout.
Jets vs. Jaguars: Jaguars (-11.5)
The Jaguars being good is always a weird thought, but here we are. Laying double digits at home vs. a Jets team that would be better off missing their flight.
Ravens vs. Bengals: Ravens (-2.5)
I’m reluctantly laying -2.5 with the Ravens because trusting this team has felt like reading The Raven on repeat: every time you think the story changes, it whispers “nevermore.” Baltimore’s inconsistency is real, but this matchup sets up too well on both sides of the ball. If there’s a week they steady the plot, it’s this one.
Bills vs. Patriots: Bills (-1.5)
I believe a little bit of payback is in order, and I say the Bills get the job done.
Panthers vs. Saints: Saints (+2.5)
The Carolina Panthers are in a fight for the division title, but I simply cannot trust them on the road. They're 3-4 away from home, and the Saints are a team that can lull you to sleep before winning the game outright.
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Colts vs. Seahawks: Seahawks (-13.5)
At this rate, Carlie Irsay might take snaps under center for the Colts. Or, Philip Rivers, but the former would be the better story. Seahawks roll.
Lions vs. Rams: Lions (+5.5)
Too. Many. Points. This game has shootout written all over it, and could very well be decided by a last-second score.
Titans vs. 49ers: 49ers (-12.5)
I picked the Titans last week, and they rewarded me. This week, I will fade them, hoping they reward me once again. The Niners are off a bye, and should run away with this one.
Packers vs. Broncos: Packers (-2.5)
I'm still not convinced either of these teams is very good. Both Jordan Love and Bo Nix have been up and down, so this game feels like a real toss-up. Give me the Packers because, why not?
Vikings vs. Cowboys: Cowboys (-6.5)
I like the Dallas Cowboys' chances of scoring 30+ points again better than I do the Vikings. With extra rest, Dallas takes care of business here.
Dolphins vs. Steelers: Steelers (-3.5)
I can't predict the Steelers for the life of me, so we'll back them at home in prime time and hope Aaron Rodgers doesn't suddenly forget how to play football.
My NFL ATS record is 101-105-2 this season for -10.5 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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