NFL Picks Against the Spread for Every Divisional Round Game

Chris Vasile breaks down his favorite NFL picks against the spread for the Divisional Round, including the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.

Chris Vasile - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Chris Vasile • Betting Analyst
Jan 13, 2026 • 14:34 ET • 4 min read
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts after scoring a touchdown.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) reacts after scoring a touchdown.

We went 5-1 with our Wild Card Weekend NFL picks against the spread, so I am looking to stay hot as teams look to punch their ticket to their respective Conference Championship games. 

Join me as I break down my best bets against the spread, headlined by a QB willing his team to victory. 

Divisional Round picks against the spread

Matchup Pick
Bills Bills vs Texans Broncos Bills (-1.5)
49ers 49ers vs Panthers Seahawks Panthers (-7)
Texans Texans vs Patriots Patriots Patriots (-3)
 Rams Rams vs Bears Bears Rams (-3.5)

Lines courtesy of FanDuel.

Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account Add as a preferred source on Google

Expert Divisional Round NFL ATS picks

Bills vs Broncos: Bills Bills (-1.5)

There are going to be a lot of people counting out the Buffalo Bills this week. For starters, they are banged up on both sides of the ball, but as long as they have Josh Allen and James Cook, the Bills will be alright.

The Denver Broncos are a very weird team to figure out. Some weeks they look like world beaters, and others they look like a midtable team.

This will be Bo Nix's second career playoff start, and if it goes anything like the first, the Broncos are in trouble. 

49ers vs Seahawks: Panthers Seahawks (-7)

With all due respect to the San Francisco 49ers as an organization, they are akin to a cockroach you just can't kill. Even with all the injuries, they find ways to defy the odds, until now. 

The Seattle Seahawks are better on both sides of the football and enter this Divisional Round game red hot, having won seven straight to close out the season. 

Lay the points with Sam Darnold


Covers NFL betting tools


Texans vs Patriots: Patriots Patriots (-3)

The Houston Texans have a major problem that cannot be overstated here. The offense — despite the scoreboard reading 30 — is a mess. C.J. Stroud looked scared. The potential loss of Nico Collins is a major blow, and despite the defense remaining elite, the New England Patriots have the horses to match. 

The Patriots might be the most complete team in the league, and I expect them to score enough to cover this short field goal spread. 

Rams vs Bears: Rams Rams (-3.5)

Maybe you could call the Chicago Bears a team of destiny, but to me, I call them lucky. They've won a handful of games this season in the final few seconds, and could very well have missed the playoffs had they not been so fortunate. 

We know the Los Angeles Rams looked shaky vs. the Carolina Panthers, but this is an experienced unit and one that will be well coached and well prepared for this game. 

Lay the points with who I believe is the favorite to win the NFC. 

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Chris Vasile Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Chris Vasile has been in the betting industry for well over a decade, honing his craft as a writer, editor, and handicapper. Chris has contributed betting and non-betting content for online publications such as ProSportsDaily and The Hockey Writers, in addition to Covers. With a keen interest in soccer, Chris has been featured on Covers' 'Before You Bet', BetMGM Network, and SportsGrid. He also runs his own YouTube channel — Game Day Wagers.

Popular Content

Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo