The Buffalo Bills are headed to Mile High Stadium to face the Denver Broncos in the AFC Divisional Round.
My Bills vs. Broncos predictions expect a defensive battle, while my same-game-parlay is betting on more Josh Allen heroics.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this playoff clash on Saturday, January 17.
Bills vs Broncos prediction
Bills vs Broncos Best bet: Under 46.5 (-110)
The Buffalo Bills' biggest weakness is their run defense, but the Denver Broncos offense won't capitalize.
Since losing RB J.K. Dobbins to an injury in Week 10, Denver ranks 25th in rush EPA with R.J. Harvey churning out just 3.4 yards per carry. Bo Nix will have an even tougher time throwing against a Bills defense that holds foes to 159.6 passing yards per game and 5.8 ypa.
Buffalo's ability to throw downfield will also be limited due to a bevy of injuries at WR, and Denver has an elite stop unit. The Broncos lead the NFL in defensive dropback success rate while ranking second in defensive rush success rate.
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Bills vs Broncos same-game parlay
With Denver's inept ground game unable to take advantage of Buffalo's soft run D, Josh Allen should will his team to victory. Last year's NFL MVP has racked up 41 rushing touchdowns over the last three seasons and has proven that he can air it out despite a mediocre WR corps.
Allen threw for 273 yards and ran for two scores against Jacksonville in the Wild Card Round. He also had 272 passing yards with another 46 yards on the ground when he faced Denver in the playoffs last year.
Bills vs Broncos SGP
- Bills moneyline
- Josh Allen Over 208.5 passing yards
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: The Tight End Zone
Denver has a strong defense but is vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game (59.7) to the position. Dawson Knox has logged 24+ receiving yards in six of his last seven games and could get more targets than usual with Dalton Kincaid banged up.
Bills vs Broncos SGP
- Bills moneyline
- Josh Allen Over 208.5 passing yards
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown
- Dawson Knox Over 21.5 receiving yards
Bills vs Broncos odds
- Spread: Bills +1.5 (-115) | Broncos -1.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Bills -102 | Broncos -116
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-105) | Under 46.5 (-115)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Bills vs Broncos trend to know
In spreads of 3.0 points or less this season, the Bills have gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Broncos.
How to watch Bills vs Broncos
| Location | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date | Saturday, January 17, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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