Following a eye-opening Week 1 debut, Raiders rookie QB Fernando Mendoza faces a tough test tonight at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) against the Houston Texans.
Houston enters as a 1.5-point home favorite behind plans to play its starters for a series or two, and my Raiders vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks expect DeMeco Ryans' defense to give the No. 1 overall pick a rough night on Thursday, Aug. 20.
Raiders vs Texans prediction
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Who will win Raiders vs Texans: Texans -1.5
Without question, Fernando Mendoza showcased why he was the No. 1 pick in his NFL debut, so much so that our Jon Metler believes the Las Vegas Raiders' QB's NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds are worth monitoring.
But even with a few spectacular throws, he led just one scoring drive against the Arizona Cardinals' backups. And while it's unclear how much the Raiders will play their starters against the Houston Texans, Klint Kubiak has said Mendoza will receive significant time.
With Houston set to play its starters for at least a series, and given the Texans' defensive depth, scoring could be difficult for a Raiders second-string unit full of rookies and fringe-rosterable players, especially on the offensive line.
Even once C.J. Stroud comes out for Houston, Davis Mills offers a steady hand behind center who should be able to do enough for the Texans to notch a two-plus-point win in a low-scoring game.
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Raiders vs Texans Over/Under pick: Under 39.5
Kubiak has played coy about how much, if at all, his starters will play against the Texans. And with Houston deploying its healthy starters, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter could tee off on the Raiders' backup offensive line.
Even once that dynamic duo and the rest of the defensive starters come out, Houston's second-string defense is scary. Veterans like Jadeveon Clowney and Logan Hall, and rookies like Kayden McDonald and Kamari Ramsey, could give Mendoza and Co. problems.
Against the Cardinals, Vegas scored 14 points total, and though Mendoza was efficient, his time to throw was high (3.13 seconds), and his average depth of target was pedestrian (7.7 yards).
The Texans' offense should struggle to score, too. Houston's backups put up just seven points against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1 of the preseason. Plus, the Under was 12-4 in Week 1 of the preseason.
Fernando Mendoza player prop: 100+ passing yards
With Mendoza expected to play "significant snaps" according to Kubiak, the No. 1 pick should surpass 100 passing yards in his second preseason game.
Last week against the Cardinals, he played 31 snaps with 18 dropbacks and 16 pass attempts, and finished with 97 passing yards. And though Kirk Cousins is starting tonight, he'll likely be pulled after a drive or two. That means Mendoza will play at least two quarters and could surpass last week's number of snaps.
Last year, on his way to winning the Heisman at Indiana, Mendoza was one of only two players in the country with an adjusted completion percentage above 78% and an average depth of target above 9.5 yards.
That ball placement and willingness to attack tight windows showed up in Week 1 and should help him throw for 100+ yards against the Texans.
Raiders vs Texans live odds
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Raiders vs Texans weather
The Texans play in Reliant Stadium, which has a retractable roof. Weather should have no impact on Thursday night.
How to watch Raiders vs Texans
| Location | Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Thursday, Aug. 20, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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