The New England Patriots once again have Mother Nature on their side when hosting the Houston Texans in the NFL Divisional Round.
With the elements set to affect Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud and the NFL odds, here is my full Texans vs. Patriots weather report for Sunday, January 18, with kickoff set for 3:00 p.m. ET.
Texans vs Patriots weather forecast
Temperatures in Foxborough will be in the mid-30s with lighter winds, making it “feel like” 27 degrees.
Sustained breezes of 4 mph NW could get up to gusts of 8 mph, blowing sideline to sideline at Gillette Stadium.
Snow is expected around 3 p.m. ET and continue through Sunday’s game, starting lighter in the first half and getting quite heavy in the second half, more specifically the fourth quarter.
Gillette Stadium does have a heated field surface, so lighter snowfalls don't build up. But if snow gets as heavy as some models forecast in the second half, footing could be compromised in the final 30 minutes.
How Texans vs Patriots weather impacts the odds
Snow is a factor on Sunday. A clear forecast would have minimal impact, at least for a visiting team accustomed to colder climates. Snow, however, makes for limited visibility, slick footballs, and slippery traction in the trenches should it accumulate.
The Houston Texans struggle offensively outdoors and on the road. They managed a cold, outdoor game at Pittsburgh in the Wild Card Round, but nearly half of the team’s points came via defensive touchdowns.
Over his career, C.J. Stroud’s completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating all take a notable hit in open-air venues. He had mixed results in Monday’s game, struggling in the first half before making some plays in the final 30 minutes.
Meanwhile, the New England Patriots provide one of the league’s better pass defenses, regardless of environment. The Pats rank 10th in EPA allowed per dropback and excel at limiting explosive passing plays.
That could make moving the chains difficult for Stroud and Houston’s passing attack, especially with No. 1 receiver Nico Collins doubtful with a concussion heading into the Divisional Round.
Texans vs Patriots player props to watch
I like the Under in this game, but even more, I like Houston to stay under its team total of 19.5 points.
Stroud struggles in outdoor venues and will be without Collins. New England keeps everything in front of it, and this could turn into a ground-heavy game that limits big gains and keeps the clock running.
The Texans average less than 20 points on the road, and surpassing that mark against the Patriots in these conditions will be very difficult.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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