The Denver Broncos are the biggest favorites in Week 2 of the NFL preseason while hosting the Green Bay Packers on Friday.
Denver’s approach to the exhibition outing and depth at quarterback are the two largest factors piling on the points. But there’s another edge for the home team powering my Packers vs. Broncos predictions.
Here are my best NFL picks for this preseason non-conference clash on Aug 21.
Packers vs Broncos prediction
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TOP PICK
Who will win Packers vs Broncos: Broncos -5.5
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton told reporters his starters will play around 14 snaps in their second tuneup game of the summer. That means quarterback Bo Nix gets his first action since going down with a busted ankle in the divisional round.
Behind Nix is veteran Jarrett Stidham, who stepped under center for the AFC title game. He and third-stringer Sam Ehlinger looked good in the opening exhibition win.
The Green Bay Packers used QB1 Jordan Love and the first-teamers for just one series in their opening preseason loss. Head coach Matt LaFleur told the media his starters will once again be lightly used, limiting them to a drive in Denver.
Rarely does home field matter much in the preseason, but the altitude at Mile High is especially grueling at this point in the schedule as players work their way into game shape during camp.
The thin air tests conditioning and is a sneaky reason why the Broncos are undefeated in the preseason at home since 2020 (7-0 straight up, 6-1 against the spread), and they own a stellar record in regular-season home openers.
Our Dustin Saracini is also backing the Broncos in his NFL moneyline picks for every Week 2 preseason game.
Packers vs Broncos Over/Under pick: Under 40.5
LaFleur is treading lightly with his top talent in the preseason, instead focusing on rounding out the Packers’ depth chart.
That includes quarterback, and he’ll take another extended look at QB3 Kyle McCord and give limited reps to Love and veteran backup Tyrod Taylor.
McCord impressed at home in Week 1 of the preseason, but he faces a tougher task on the road Friday. The five sacks the Cheeseheads' O-line allowed in Week 1 are also reason for concern.
The Broncos’ offensive focus this exhibition campaign is establishing the rushing attack, feeding into Payton’s play-action schemes.
Denver ran the ball 39 times in its 2026 preseason debut, which was among the highest run percentages in Week 1. That helped to pile up more than 36 minutes of time of possession, keeping the clock ticking and gains short.
Packers vs Broncos live odds
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Packers vs Broncos weather
Temperatures are forecasted for the low 70s at Empower Field on Friday night, with winds topping out at 9 mph and blowing WSW. It looks like a perfect night in the mountains for preseason football.
How to watch Packers vs Broncos
| Location | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date | Friday, Aug. 21, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9 p.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
Packers vs Broncos latest injuries
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