Joe Burrow is shaping multiple NFL futures markets at DraftKings just weeks ahead of the regular season.
Key Takeaways
- Belief in Burrow is leading bettors to back the Bengals in the Super Bowl and AFC winner markets.
- Giants could be DraftKings’ biggest liability to win it all.
- Bears bettors back their team even when they aren’t good, so a talented Chicago team is getting heavy action this year.
Burrow is currently listed third, with odds of +850, behind the Bills' Josh Allen (+600) and the Ravens' Lamar Jackson (+800) to win MVP in one of the operator’s most popular futures markets.
Burrow is getting a heavy dose of handle, just like he did last year, but bettors aren’t stopping there.
DraftKings Sportsbook director Johnny Avello told Covers on Thursday that customers are doubling down on the star quarterback, who is coming off an injury-riddled season, and betting that a monster year from Burrow can carry the entire franchise.
“They want to bet him for MVP, and they also want to bet that the team goes far,” Avello said. “They want to bet over the team's win total. This is a team when they're betting Joe Burrow like that, the money is spread out in other categories on the team.”
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Bengals lead AFC action
Burrow's presence and strong health heading into the season are complemented by an explosive offense featuring receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, running back Chase Brown, and an improving defense. This has helped make the Bengals the most-bet team to win the AFC title this season with 16% of the handle at DraftKings.
Cincinnati is fifth in the Super Bowl winner market by handle, getting 6.4% of the money.
“They put a lot of points on the board,” Avello said. “The defense is kind of what’s hurt (Burrow) in the past, so hopefully they’ll be a little bit better this year, but since he’s been in the NFL, his numbers have been really good.”
As popular as Burrow is heading into Week 1 next month, Avello said he’s far from the only player getting money. Chicago’s Caleb Williams (+1,200) is DraftKings’ biggest liability in the MVP market, while the Broncos' Bo Nix (+3,500), the Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs (+12,000), and even Saints QB Tyler Shough (+10,000) are taking noticeable money as well.
“If you’re looking for a guy that you would normally think would be in the category, (Shough’s) a guy that they are playing, and I think only because the odds are so high,” Avello said.
Super Bowl market
The Rams have the shortest Super Bowl odds entering the season at +550, nearly half the price of the next-shortest team. Head coach Sean McVay’s loaded squad that lost the NFC title game to the champion Seahawks last year is unsurprisingly getting 20% of the futures market handle. The Bills (+1,000) are second at 9.6% of the money.
Along with the Bengals and Broncos (+2,000), Avello said the New York Giants, with John Harbaugh at the helm and hope of a turnaround season, have seen steady action with current odds of +7,000 to win the Super Bowl.
“That’s the team that will probably have the largest liability by the end, throughout the season,” he said. “The question is, do they make the playoffs or not? How far can they go this year? Some people think, ‘I’m going to take a shot at this price because the coach is so good, and maybe he can get them to the Super Bowl.’”
Betting Bears
DraftKings is accustomed to seeing money on several other teams, but only the Bears are matching Avello’s expectations right now.
They’re coming off an 11-win regular season and the NFC North title, so it’s no surprise that 9.1% of the handle to win the Super Bowl and a market-high 31% of the money to win the NFC are backing the Bears (+2,400).
“Even when the bettors know they're not going to be that good, they still take money,” Avello said. “Now they’re a contender. (Last year) was kind of a magical year for them. Can they repeat that in a division that's pretty tough? The bettors think that they went far last year, they can pick up that momentum where they left off and go further this year. It's possible.
“I would presume by the end of the year the Bears will be another big hazard for us.”
As for potential surprises, Avello said the Lions, Seahawks, 49ers, Eagles, and Ravens have drawn less interest than in past years.
“These teams at some point will get played more, but at this time, the bettors have chosen others,” Avello said.
