Patrick Mahomes TNF Spotlight: Player Props for Thursday Night Football Week 1

The 2023 NFL season finally kicks off tonight when Patrick Mahomes and the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions. The Lions have generated a lot of NFL odds buzz following closing out last year with an 8-2 record down the stretch.

Additional intrigue has been added to TNF odds following the bone bruise that was sustained by Travis Kelce in a practice on Tuesday, bringing into question if he will play and how his targets will be divided up if he were to miss Thursday's game.

Despite the Chiefs remaining home chalk in Week 1 odds, can Mahomes navigate a season-opening win without Kelce? We break down the Patrick Mahomes odds, and give our best free NFL picks, for Lions vs. Chiefs on Thursday, September 7.

Don't forget to look at our full-game TNF picks and predictions, as well as our TNF props column.

Patrick Mahomes TNF prop picks

• Over 17.5 rushing yards
• Over 17.5 rushing yards + Valdes-Scantling Over 38.5 receiving yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Patrick Mahomes TNF prop pick

Over 17.5 rushing yards (-115)

After the departure of Tyreek Hill last year and the increased usage by opponents of two-high safety shells to limit the Kansas City Chiefs' deep potential, Kansas City shifted its offense to target the short and intermediate areas of the field more. Another byproduct of seeing defenses stretch themselves deeper was increased rushing production from Patrick Mahomes.

In 2022, the reigning MVP put up his second-highest rushing yard total despite logging the second-fewest rushing attempts per game. In essence, Mahomes found larger runways for his legs with defenses becoming lighter in the first and second levels of the field.

Last year, the MVP quarterback averaged 21.1 rushing yards per game, notably above Thursday's number. Even when removing a 63-yard game on the ground, he still averaged 18.4 yards per game. In the case of player props, it's also important to look at medians rather than averages, and last year's numbers came in at 23 rushing ypg.

Of course, we need to also factor Travis Kelce's bone bruise which was sustained in Tuesday's practice. If Kelce either doesn't play or is deployed sparingly or just as a decoy, that's one (frequently) open target that Mahomes can no longer rely on.

With his options through the air limited, Mahomes may rely on his legs just a bit more in Kansas City's season opener.

Prop: Over 17.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Patrick Mahomes TNF same-game parlay

Mahomes Over 17.5 rushing yards (-122)

Valdes-Scantling Over 42.5 receiving yards (-114)

+238 at FanDuel

To further take advantage of this angle, there are additional wagers that can be added into a same-game parlay.

The Skyy Moore odds for his receiving yards prop is set at 45.5, which is higher than all but one of his single-game yardage totals last year. In fact, the speedy wideout only totaled 250 yards last year in his rookie year, and this prop suggests he is going to accumulate nearly 20% of his total yardage last year in one game.

Instead, we should look toward veteran receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He played and produced more extensively last year (81 receptions for 687 yards) and eclipsed his Thursday yardage prop of 42.5 in eight of 17 games last year.

Keep in mind that Valdes-Scantling did so while operating as the third receiving option behind Kelce (questionable) and Juju Smith-Schuster (now in New England).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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