After dropping their banner night game to open the season, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have turned things around with two straight wins, including last week's sterling performance that saw the two-time MVP go 24-for-33 for 272 yards and three touchdowns.
They'll travel to New York to take on the Jets on Sunday Night Football, a team marred by the season-ending injury to Aaron Rodgers. The defense continues to play well, holding the Patriots to just 15 points last week and the Bills to just 16 points in Week 1.
Can Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense scheme up a win against the Jets defense in our Sunday Night Football odds?
Patrick Mahomes SNF prop picks
- Over 16.5 rushing yards
- Over 16.5 rush yards + Kelce Over 73.5 rec yards + Watson Over 22.5 rec yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Patrick Mahomes SNF prop pick
Over 16.5 rushing yards
This is a prop we've highlighted each week and for good reason. In Week 1, Mahomes' rushing yardage prop was set at 17.5 and despite accumulating 45 yards on the ground that game, there was no subsequent change to his market.
And now, despite accumulating 30 rushing yards in Week 2 and another 28 yards in Week 3, his prop still sits at just 16.5 for his Week 4 matchup against the Jets.
Granted, New York boasts the best defense the Kansas City Chiefs have seen this year but Mahomes' reliance on his feet is more a product of the lack of talent in the receiving room outside of Travis Kelce.
And even though the Jets are one of the most talented defenses, they've shown the ability to give up rushing yards to quarterbacks in the past. Josh Allen gained 36 yards that way in Week 1 and the immobile Dak Prescott and Mac Jones went for 14 and 13, respectively, in the last two weeks.
It goes without saying Mahomes is more mobile than those latter two yet his prop is set near their totals.
Prop: Over 16.5 rushing yards (-114)
Patrick Mahomes SNF same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 16.5 rushing yards
Travis Kelce Over 71.5 receiving yards
Justin Watson Over 23.5 receiving yards
Taylor Swift's newest love interest Travis Kelce put on a performance with her in attendance last week, tallying seven receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown. Swift is allegedly set to attend Sunday Night Football and many expect Kelce to show out once again.
The Jets have fared rather well covering tight ends this year, but that may be more a product of the talent of tight ends they have faced as opposed to the quality of their coverage.
In Week 1, they played against rookie Dalton Kincaid (tight ends notoriously take the longest time to develop and produce). In Week 2, they faced off against Jake Ferguson, who had 19 career receptions heading into this year. Last week, they faced off the unimpressive pair of Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki.
In the larger sample that was all of last season, the Jets allowed 61.7 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, good for the sixth-worst mark in the league last year.
On the other end of the public consciousness scale, the relatively unknown Justin Watson has quietly been a consistent and increasingly involved factor in the Chiefs' offense. He has now put up receiving totals of 45, 62, and 51 yards to start the 2023 season yet his prop for Sunday night is still at just 22.5.
Watson may not be as popular as this entire Swift-Kelce saga but when it comes to betting attention, he is just as deserved as Kelce for tonight.
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