It was a rough go for our moneyline picks last week, as a 7-7 record (-2.71 units) was torpedoed by several upsets.
We’re going back to the well in Week 6 with a fresh batch of NFL picks, capped off by the Detroit Lions walking out of Arrowhead Stadium with a win.
Week 6 NFL moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Eagles vs  Giants |
-390 |
 Broncos vs  Jets |
-400 |
 Cardinals vs  Colts |
-330 |
 Rams vs  Ravens |
-370 |
 Browns vs  Steelers |
-275 |
 Seahawks vs  Jaguars |
-118 |
 Chargers vs  Dolphins |
+162 |
 Cowboys vs  Panthers |
-174 |
 Patriots vs  Saints |
-194 |
 Titans vs  Raiders |
+194 |
 49ers vs  Buccaneers |
-154 |
 Bengals vs  Packers |
-1200 |
 Lions vs  Chiefs |
+118 |
 Bills vs  Falcons |
+188 |
 Bears vs  Commanders |
+188 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 10-8.
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Expert Week 6 NFL moneyline picks
Eagles vs. Giants: Eagles (-390)
Saquon Barkley has yet to have a breakout game in 2025.
That changes on TNF against his former team, who rank dead last against the run by DVOA.
The Philadelphia Eagles bounce back in the Meadowlands.
Broncos vs. Jets: Broncos (-400)
Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos came alive in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia, with the defense leading the charge to erase a 17-3 deficit.
Bo Nix has really struggled in his sophomore season, but facing the pitiful New York Jets is one way to regain some confidence.
Cardinals vs. Colts: Colts (-330)
The Indianapolis Colts need to make a major trade to bolster their defense if they want to be known as a serious AFC contender. But the offense is for real, and the Colts should manhandle an Arizona Cardinals team that has lost three straight, most recently blowing a 21-6 lead to Tennessee.
Rams vs. Ravens: Rams (-370)
Yup, this is officially the year from hell for the Baltimore Ravens.
With Lamar Jackson sidelined for another week, the Los Angeles Rams won’t play with their food — especially with extra days to prepare following their upset loss to San Francisco on TNF.
Browns vs. Steelers: Steelers (-275)
The Pittsburgh Steelers' bye week has helped their defense get healthy, and they'll be ready to overwhelm Dillon Gabriel in his first true road start.
With the Cleveland Browns traveling all the way back from London, I’m surprised this line is only listed at -4.5.
I expect the Steelers to roll, 23-7.
Seahawks vs. Jaguars: Jaguars (-118)
If the Seattle Seahawks defense was at full strength, I’d be ready to back them on the road — but last week’s shootout loss to Tampa showed just how costly those injuries have been.
Trevor Lawrence’s confidence is at an all-time high after a signature performance on his 26th birthday, and the Jacksonville Jaguars should carry that momentum from their prime-time win against the Chiefs.
Chargers vs. Dolphins: Dolphins (+162)
This upset pick is simply a play on the Miami Dolphins’ home-field advantage, with the sun beating down on the opposing sideline for all four quarters.
The Los Angeles Chargers have started to “Charger” over the past two weeks, and devastating injuries along the offensive line have Justin Herbert on his heels.
Cowboys vs. Panthers: Cowboys (-174)
How ’bout those Dallas Cowboys?!
Dak Prescott and the offense have put the team on their backs, treading water at 2-2-1 despite being without CeeDee Lamb for the last two games.
Another cupcake matchup against the Carolina Panthers gifts them a win despite their piss-poor defense.
Patriots vs. Saints: Patriots (-194)
Drake "Maybe" turned into Drake "Definitely" on Sunday night in Buffalo (shoutout to the Bill Simmons Podcast), and the New England Patriots defense kept Josh Allen in check all game.
New England wins its third straight in NOLA.
Titans vs. Raiders: Titans (+194)
I'll take the road dog in Sin City.
Tight ends Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer are both questionable for the Las Vegas Raiders, and Geno Smith has been a colossal disaster for their offense, sporting a 6–9 TD-INT ratio heading into Week 6.
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49ers vs. Buccaneers: Buccaneers (-154)
If you follow me on X, you know I have a soft spot for Mac Jones, and Kyle Shanahan seems to be thrilled with him under center.
Unfortunately, injuries on the San Francisco 49ers defense will be their undoing against Baker Mayfield and a relentless Tampa Bay Buccaneers attack.
Tampa rolls in America’s Game of the Week.
Bengals vs. Packers: Packers (-1200)
Hey Joe Flacco, good luck in your first game with the Cincinnati Bengals — you’ll be going up against Micah Parsons and the Green Bay Packers pass rush!
Green Bay wins 27-3 at Lambeau.
Lions vs. Chiefs: Lions (+118)
The Detroit Lions got the best of the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023 season opener, and the home team's roster is much worse now.
Kansas City’s defense has struggled with chemistry (looking at you, Chris Jones), while Detroit ranks among the best at pressuring the quarterback.
On offense, Detroit hasn’t skipped a beat without Ben Johnson, and it should honestly be the favorite on SNF.
Bills vs. Falcons: Falcons (+188)
Coming off a bye, I like the Atlanta Falcons to get WR Darnell Mooney and CB A.J. Terrell healthy ahead of their home matcup on MNF.
The Falcons defense has been lights out against the pass this season, and the combination of Jalon Walker and James Pearce should contain Josh Allen in the pocket.
Falcons take this one, 27-23.
Bears vs. Commanders: Bears (+188)
It's easy to forget that the Chicago Bears nearly defeated the Washington Commanders at FedEx Field last season (thanks a lot, Tyrique Stevenson).
Chicago has found some traction over the past two weeks, and a week off provides a leg up on Washington after its West Coast trip.
My NFL moneyline record is 52-26 this season for +8.13 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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