Saints vs Cowboys Prediction, Picks & Odds for Friday's NFL Preseason Game

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst 21+ years betting experience
Updated: Aug 27, 2026 , 05:57 PM ET • 4 min read

The Cowboys have played with passion in the preseason, thanks to a QB2 competition and a new defensive coordinator trying to prove himself. Jason Logan likes Dallas in its final exhibition game.

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Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Christian Parker NFL
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Christian Parker.

The Dallas Cowboys have had a good preseason so far.
 
According to head coach Brian Schottenheimer, there’s still a lot of work to do when Dallas hosts the New Orleans Saints in the final exhibition outing on Friday. 

The Cowboys won their first two preseason showings, thanks to an improved defense and battle for the backup QB spot. And when it comes to trading on football, QB is the one position that dictates my NFL picks.

Here’s my Saints vs. Cowboys predictions for Week 3 of the preseason on Aug. 28.

Saints vs Cowboys prediction

Pick Kalshi
Probability
Cowboys ML 52%
Under 38.5 53%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Who will win Saints vs Cowboys: Dallas Cowboys

Kalshi probability: 52%

Don’t expect to see the Dallas Cowboys’ starters much – if at all – on Friday. But a fiery fight for the QB2 spot is still ongoing, with Joe Milton III and Sam Howell going tit for tat during the summer sked.

Those passers have combined for 439 yards on 36-for-50 passing with four touchdowns the past two contests. Both QBs have also shown an ability to make plays with their legs when things break down.

New Orleans Saints head coach Kellen Moore hasn’t given his first teams any live action beyond joint practices this summer and won’t stray from that Friday.

New Orleans is 0-2 in the preseason and coming off a rough 34-0 loss to Indianapolis in Week 2.

 TOP PICK
Saints vs Cowboys Over/Under pick: Under 38.5

Kalshi probability: 53%

The Cowboys have had success scoring in the exhibition schedule, most recently doing the heavy lifting with 34 points in a win over Arizona.
 
Getting overshadowed by the QB competition has been solid efforts from this defense and new coordinator Christian Parker.

The Dallas defense has limited preseason foes to 10-for-25 success on third/fourth down conversions (40%) while holding those teams to a 2-for-7 TD rate inside the red zone.

New Orleans’ offense brings a 12-for-31 clip (39%) on those crucial downs in their two tune-up games. The Saints are 2-for-6 on RZ possessions in the preseason, including 0-for-2 in the shutout loss to the Colts.

The Saints offense could go run heavy in this final preseason outings. New Orleans passed more in the first two exhibitions (77 total dropbacks vs. 42 handoffs) but suddenly has big questions in the run game. 

Running back Ty Chandler is out for the season, rookie Devin Neal is nursing a bum hamstring, and veteran Alvin Kamara will miss the first month.
 
It wouldn’t surprise me to see NOLA kick the tires on their RB depth versus Dallas. That means shorter gains that keep the clock ticking, giving fuel to the Under.

Saints vs Cowboys live odds

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Saints vs Cowboys weather

This final preseason game is inside AT&T Stadium, so weather won’t be a factor.

How to watch Saints vs Cowboys

Location AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Date Friday, Aug. 28, 2026
Kickoff 8 p.m. ET
TV WVUE-FOX, KTVT-CBS

Saints vs Cowboys latest injuries

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst Jason Logan has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason's first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast at stations like WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio, Jason's analysis has also been featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers' flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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