We’re already past the halfway point of the NFL season, and with the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, it’s clear which teams are contenders and which ones are merely background filler.
The Philadelphia Eagles have erased any doubt of a Super Bowl hangover, and the defending champs spearhead my favorite NFL picks for Week 10.
Week 10 NFL moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Raiders vs  Broncos |
-500 |
 Falcons vs  Colts |
-270 |
 Ravens vs  Vikings |
-220 |
 Patriots vs  Buccaneers |
-142 |
 Jaguars vs  Texans |
-102 |
 Browns vs  Jets |
-136 |
 Saints vs  Panthers |
-250 |
 Giants vs  Bears |
-190 |
 Bills vs  Dolphins |
-510 |
 Cardinals vs  Seahawks |
-310 |
 Rams vs  49ers |
-205 |
 Lions vs  Commanders |
-500 |
 Steelers vs  Chargers |
+126 |
 Eagles vs  Packers |
+118 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 11-5.
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Expert Week 10 NFL moneyline picks
Raiders vs Broncos: Broncos (-500)
Usually, a banged-up Broncos secondary would give me reason to pause on taking Denver, but Geno Smith enters this TNF showdown with an 11:11 TD-to-INT ratio, and the Raiders’ defense has shown no reason to be bullish about their chances of getting stops.
It may not be pretty, but Denver will prevail at Empower Field.
Falcons vs Colts: Colts (-270)
Daniel Jones turned the ball over five times in Pittsburgh last week, yet the Colts still only lost by a touchdown.
They’ll get back on track in Berlin against an Atlanta team that has dropped three straight, and if Sauce Gardner is able to make his Colts debut, even better.
Ravens vs Vikings: Ravens (-220)
Lamar Jackson didn’t look anywhere near 100% in last week’s win over Miami, but he’s come so far as a pocket passer that his limitations as a runner barely mattered.
Zach Orr’s defense has started to right the ship, and they should get the better of J.J. McCarthy, who’s coming off another pedestrian outing in Detroit.
Patriots vs Buccaneers: Buccaneers (-142)
Drake Maye has been sacked 12 times over his last two games, and Todd Bowles will be ready to bring the heat against a Patriots offensive line that continues to be a major liability.
Bucs prevail at home coming out of the bye.
Jaguars vs Texans: Jaguars (-102)
C.J. Stroud’s availability for this matchup remains uncertain after exiting last week’s game with a concussion, so I’m leaning toward Jacksonville in this AFC South clash.
Browns vs Jets: Browns (-136)
New York offloaded both Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams at the deadline, moving this line more than a field goal in Cleveland's favor.
Cleveland should take advantage.
Saints vs Panthers: Panthers (-250)
Sitting at 5-4, Carolina has been one of the season’s biggest surprises, and its run-heavy offense is bound to grind out another win against 1-8 NOLA.
Giants vs Bears: Bears (-190)
Bills vs Dolphins: Bills (-510)
How does Mike McDaniel still have a job?
Chris Grier was the first domino to fall after last week’s embarrassment against Baltimore, and a similar outcome is brewing against Josh Allen and the Bills.
Enough is enough in the 305.
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Cardinals vs Seahawks: Seahawks (-310)
Jacoby Brissett shredded the Cowboys on Monday Night Football, but facing the Seahawks’ defense is another story.
Seattle wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been unguardable in 2025, and adding speed threat Rashid Shaheed will create major mismatches against this Cardinals secondary.
Rams vs 49ers: Rams (-205)
Prior to falling at home to San Francisco in Week 5, the Rams had won three straight head-to-head matchups with the 49ers.
Matthew Stafford is currently playing like an MVP candidate, and LA will overwhelm a decimated 49ers defense.
Lions vs Commanders: Lions (-500)
With Jayden Daniels sidelined indefinitely due to a dislocated elbow, Detroit is set for a field day in Landover.
The Commanders' defense can’t stop a nosebleed, and Marcus Mariota has thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns (four) in relief of Daniels this year.
Steelers vs Chargers: Steelers (+126)
T.J. Watt and the Steelers will feast against a Chargers team that just lost All-Pro tackle Joe Alt to season-ending ankle surgery.
Eagles vs Packers: Eagles (+118)
Green Bay is officially on fraud watch.
Philadelphia has had an extra week to prepare for this primetime showdown at Lambeau, with the acquisition of Jaelan Phillips and the return of Brandon Graham set to strengthen the Eagles' pass rush.
The wrong team is favored on MNF.
My NFL moneyline record is 87-48 this season for +6.46 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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