Our Bills vs. Rams best bets bring together Covers' top Monday Night Football angles, including Los Angeles on the moneyline and spread, a massive total going Over, two Buffalo passing-game props, and Josh Allen finding the end zone under the lights at SoFi Stadium.
The Buffalo Bills visit the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday, Oct. 12. Los Angeles is a 3.5-point home favorite, with the game total set at 54.5.
Monday Night Football predictions: Bills vs Rams
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Rams moneyline |
61% |
| Rams -2.5 |
57% |
 / Over 54.5 |
49% |
| Josh Allen 2+ passing TDs |
49% |
| Khalil Shakir 40+ receiving yds |
57% |
| Josh Allen anytime TD |
52% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Who will win Bills vs Rams?
The Buffalo Bills are catching points on the road, but Trevor Knapp is backing the Los Angeles Rams outright in his NFL Week 5 moneyline picks.
Our prediction: Rams to win — Yes (61%)
Knapp gives Los Angeles the edge at home, particularly with Buffalo dealing with uncertainty around Ed Oliver and D.J. Moore.
"With Ed Oliver and D.J. Moore’s statuses up in the air, a Rams team fresh off escaping the jaws of defeat in Philly will have the upper hand at home.
Expect Sean McVay to lean heavily on Kyren Williams and Blake Corum against a Bills defense that has been gashed for 274 rushing yards over its last two games."
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'MAX60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Monday Night Football spread prediction
Our prediction: Rams -2.5 — Yes (57%)
Chris Vasile laid less than a field goal with Los Angeles in his NFL Week 5 against the spread picks made earlier in the week before the lined moved to 3.5.
"Buffalo is dangerous in any underdog role because Josh Allen can erase a bad handicap in two drives. The matchup still points me toward Los Angeles.
The Rams can attack Buffalo on the ground, where the Bills have been less convincing, and that keeps Matthew Stafford out of obvious passing downs. Below three, I’ll lay it with the Rams."
Monday Night Football total prediction
Market lean: Over 54.5 — Yes (50%)
NFL analyst Josh Inglis expects Monday's heavyweight matchup to produce another shootout in his Bills vs. Rams predictions.
Inglis points to Buffalo's defensive issues after New England piled up 405 yards and converted all three of its red-zone trips.
"The Los Angeles Rams just allowed 20 points to a no-name Philly offense that went 0-for-12 on third down and managed just 10 passing yards in the second half. Only the Giants failed to score 20+ against them, and Jaxson Dart exited early with an injury.
Josh Allen's efficiency indoors is off the charts, and I love both quarterbacks to keep this game alive in a negative game script and help backdoor the Over if need be. This could look a lot like the Rams' 44-42 win over the Bills at SoFi in 2024."
More Bills vs Rams picks from Covers
- Bills vs. Rams predictions
- Bills vs. Rams props
- Bills vs. Rams anytime touchdown scorer picks
- Bills vs. Rams expert picks
Monday Night Football player props
Passing prop: Josh Allen 2+ passing touchdowns — Yes (49%)
Jason Logan expects Allen's passing touchdown production to rebound in a high-scoring indoor matchup. Logan notes that Allen threw multiple touchdown passes in each of Buffalo's first two games before finishing with one in each of the next two.
"Despite Josh Allen being one of the most prominent passers in the land, his passing TD props never match that magic.
The Bills QB is a red-zone monster, namely due to his ability to tuck and run for the end zone. That anchors his passing TD ask, much like it does on MNF. Models all sit on the other side of 1.5 touchdown throws with a ceiling of 1.8."
Receiving prop: Khalil Shakir 40+ receiving yards — Yes (57%)
Logan also expects Shakir to benefit from Buffalo's wide receiver injuries and a favorable slot matchup.
"Slot receiver Khalil Shakir steps up the food chain, especially vs. a Rams defense that has been soft against slot WRs. Los Angeles has allowed the third most yards to the position heading into Week 5.
Shakir has been Buffalo’s best weapon vs. zone defense the past three seasons and will see plenty of zone coverage from L.A., which runs zone at the eighth-highest rate."
Check out Jason Logan's full Bills vs. Rams player props for his complete breakdown.
Bills anytime touchdown prop: Josh Allen anytime touchdown — Yes (52%)
Josh Inglis backs Allen to continue his dominant indoor rushing production. Inglis notes that Allen has 12 rushing touchdowns across nine career indoor games and scored three times on the ground in his 2024 visit to SoFi Stadium.
"Even if you can't get behind the indoor splits, how about a quarterback who has scored in every game this year, has multiple rushing TDs in 75% of his games, and has more carries inside the five-yard line than all but seven players in the league?
James Cook might outtouch Allen in the red zone, but from the five and in, it's the Allen show, with six carries to Cook's four."
For more touchdown angles, check out our full Bills vs. Rams touchdown picks.
Bills vs Rams live markets explained
Kalshi event contracts can be bought and sold as the Bills vs. Rams unfolds, meaning traders aren't necessarily locked into their original pregame position.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Bills vs Rams prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will the Bills beat the Rams?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. Kalshi instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Bills vs. Rams position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Bills vs Rams at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
