Tonight's Monday Night Football matchup could be one for the ages, with the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams squaring off in SoFi Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Our Bills vs. Rams expert picks provide a side prediction, player props, and an anytime touchdown play for this Oct. 12 affair.
If you're looking for more NFL picks, our Bills vs. Rams predictions also weigh in on the total and provide a 33x combo.
Bills vs Rams expert picks
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| Expert Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: Josh Allen 2+ touchdown passes |
51% |
 Josh Inglis: Dalton Kincaid 50+ receiving yards |
52% |
 Joe Osborne: Rams -3.5 |
48% |
 Jon Metler: Josh Allen anytime touchdown |
49% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jason Logan’s expert pick: Josh Allen 2+ touchdown passes
Price: 51% at Kalshi
Josh Allen’s passing TD props come at a discount because of how dangerous the Buffalo Bills QB is as a runner in the red zone.
With the tallest total on the board for Buffalo’s trip to Los Angeles, Allen’s TD pass projections are very positive. Those models range from 1.4 to 1.84, with the majority at 1.6 or higher.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: Dalton Kincaid 50+ receiving yards
Price: 52% at Kalshi
Dalton Kincaid feels like a classic buy-low candidate after a quiet two-game stretch. Buffalo has moved away from its heavy TE usage and dialed back its play-action rate, leaving Kincaid with just three catches over the last two games.
A Week 4 loss to New England could remind Joe Brady to return to the 13-personnel approach that worked so well in Weeks 1 and 2. Kincaid racked up 225 receiving yards and a TD during that stretch, showing the upside is still there.
The Bills have struggled offensively over the last two games, and getting Kincaid more involved should be a priority in what has the potential to be an indoor shootout. His projection sits at 59 receiving yards, making this an appealing spot to buy low on the tight end.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rams -3.5
Price: 48% at Kalshi
After a brutal travel schedule, the Los Angeles Rams finally get home with an extra day to prepare for a sloppy Buffalo team that’s committed seven turnovers in its last two games.
The defensive gap is massive. L.A. ranks second in yards per play allowed, while Buffalo ranks 29th in opponent explosive-play rate and gives up 26.8 points per game.
Against a healthy Rams offense with three straight 400-yard games, there’s potential for the Bills defense to get embarrassed.
Jon Metler’s expert pick: Josh Allen anytime touchdown
Price: 49% at Kalshi
Josh Allen is trading at 49% on Kalshi to score a touchdown, and I’ll hit the button at that number, as I price him closer to 56% to find the end zone on Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams.
With Trent McDuffie on the perimeter and Quentin Lake matching up against Dalton Kincaid in the red zone, Joe Brady could dial up a few more designed runs for Allen.
The Rams match up well against the Bills’ other red-zone targets, which could give Allen more opportunities to use his legs near the goal line.
How to watch Bills vs Rams
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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