Touchdowns could be coming early and often tonight between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium, with a 54.5-point total, an indoor setting, and the two reigning NFL MVPs.
These are my Bills vs. Rams anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Monday Night Football.
As I point out in my Bills vs. Rams predictions, Josh Allen turns it on indoors, Tyler Hibee is a great option after the big three for the Rams, Kyren Williams has a great first-TD matchup, and Ty Johnson might be the sneaky TD for a possibly trailing Bills team on Monday, Oct. 12.
Best Bills vs Rams anytime touchdown picks
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Allen |
52% |
 Tyler Higbee |
26% |
| First TD: Kyren Williams |
16% |
| Long shot: Ty Johnson |
13% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Bills touchdown pick: Josh Allen
In his nine indoor games, Josh Allen's numbers are insane. His passer rating is 14 points higher, but his rushing numbers really stand out.
He has 12 rushing touchdowns in those nine games and averages 43 rushing yards per game. One of those performances was a three-TD, 82-yard rushing game at SoFi Stadium in 2024 against this Los Angeles Rams defense, in a game that saw both teams score 40+ points.
Even if you can't get behind the indoor splits, how about a quarterback who has scored in every game this year, has multiple rushing TDs in 75% of his games, and has more carries inside the five-yard line than all but seven players in the league?
James Cook might outtouch Allen in the red zone, but from the five and in, it's the Allen show, with six carries to Cook's four.
It's an indoor prime-time game against reigning MVP Matthew Stafford. Allen will show up and find the end zone. The fair price for this TD in a 54.5-point total should be 59.5%.
Rams touchdown pick: Tyler Higbee
After the Big 3 in this offense, I like Tyler Higbee as the next most likely to score.
Terrance Ferguson is still out, and Colby Parkinson is just returning after missing last week. Parkinson also hasn't seen more than two targets in any game he's played. The Rams use heavy-TE sets at one of the highest rates, and Higbee ran 76% of the routes last game, finishing with six targets.
The Buffalo Bills defense is still adjusting to a new system after losing a defensive-minded head coach, and the results haven't been great. They're allowing nearly 27 points per game against some questionable offenses.
It's tough to find value on the big names in the L.A. offense, but Higbee is the pivot if TD prices shorter than even money don't interest you.
First touchdown scorer pick: Kyren Williams
The workload split between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum is very one-sided heading into Week 5. Williams played 82% of the snaps last week vs. the Eagles and outcarried Corum 16-5. Over the last two weeks, Williams has seven red-zone carries to Corum's zero.
He hasn't scored the first TD in any game despite being one of the most likely running backs to score each week and finding the end zone in three of his four games.
The Rams rank fifth in EPA per play on their first 15 offensive plays (+0.159), while the Buffalo defense ranks 15th at -0.040.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Ty Johnson
With the Bills projected to play from behind, Ty Johnson could see an increase in snaps and routes. He ran 40% of the routes last week vs. the Patriots, and THE BLITZ has his fair TD probability at 16%.
Johnson has seen some red-zone opportunities this year and will likely be the hurry-up back.
With a massive total, there aren't many names who could see a decent amount of snaps and still qualify for this list. But if there's one time to take a shot on Johnson, it's tonight, hoping a third-down play or two-minute opportunity turns into six for the backup back.
Bills vs Rams touchdown combo
Dalton Kincaid
Puka Nacua
The Bills need to get back to their offensive ways from Weeks 1 and 2, and that means more heavy-TE sets and Dalton Kincaid. He has just three catches over the last two games after opening the season with 12 receptions and 200+ yards. His TD market has moved from better than 3x to its current price of 2.85x.
Puka Nacua is especially tough to defend indoors and at home. He had nine grabs for 125 yards last week, but his score came on a rush.
He averaged over 100 receiving yards per game at home last year, and this Buffalo defense hasn't stopped anybody this season, allowing more than one TD per game to opposing wide receivers.
- TD picks: 15-43 this season for -2.3 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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