When you have a game as sexy as Monday’s matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams, you just hope it lives up to the hype.
The total for Monday Night Football is the tallest number on the Week 5 odds board, so naturally I’ve got some Bills vs. Rams prop picks that follow that high-flying game script.
Here are my Bills vs. Rams predictions and NFL picks for the Week 5 finale on Oct. 12.
Best Bills vs Rams props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Allen 2+ passing touchdowns |
49% |
| Shakir 40+ receiving yards |
57% |
 Higbee 3+ receptions |
52% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Josh Allen 2+ passing touchdowns
Despite Josh Allen being one of the most prominent passers in the land, his passing TD props never match that magic.
The Bills QB is a red-zone monster, namely due to his ability to tuck and run for the end zone. That anchors his passing TD ask, much like it does on MNF.
Allen threw for two and three touchdowns in the first two games of the season before registering just one passing TD in the past two games. However, with a total this high and a rare indoor outing, Allen’s TD pass projections are very positive.
Models all sit on the other side of 1.5 touchdown throws with a ceiling of 1.8.
Prop pick #2: Khalil Shakir 40+ receiving yards
The Bills have some injuries in the receiver’s room, with Joshua Palmer out and D.J. Moore tabbed as questionable.
Slot receiver Khalil Shakir steps up the food chain, especially versus a Rams defense that has been soft against slot WRs. Los Angeles has allowed the third most yards to the position heading into Week 5.
Shakir has been Buffalo’s best weapon versus zone defense the past three seasons and will see plenty of zone coverage from L.A., which runs zone at the eighth highest rate.
The bulk of his Week 5 projections sit north of 40 yards with my number coming out to 51.5 receiving yards on Monday night.
Prop pick #3: Tyler Higbee 3+ receptions
Rams tight end Tyler Higbee did an excellent job stepping up with fellow TEs Terrence Ferguson and Colby Parkinson dealing with injuries.
Even with Parkinson healthy for Week 5, I don’t see Sean McVay forgetting about Higbee. He drew a total of 17 targets for 13 catches and a collective 129 yards the past two games.
His reception projections all hover around or above three grabs on Monday night, with a ceiling of 3.5 catches. My number sits right on three receptions for Higbee.
Buffalo sits middle of the road in defending tight ends, ranked No. 15 in DVOA vs. TEs but allowing 5.4 passes to the position (13th most). The Bills got burned by New England TE Hunter Henry in Week 4, allowing five catches for 62 yards.
- Prop picks: 21-9, +11.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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