The Buffalo Bills head to SoFi Stadium as 3.5-point underdogs for Monday Night Football against the Los Angeles Rams, and this clash boasts the highest total on the Week 5 odds board at 54.5.
My Bills vs. Rams predictions expect more fireworks from quarterback Josh Allen, who tallied six touchdowns in his last appearance at this venue in 2024 — and still lost.
Find out more in my NFL picks for Monday, Oct. 12, and don't miss kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Bills vs Rams prediction: Over 54.5
The Buffalo Bills defense is a laughingstock as new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard struggles to implement his scheme.
Drake Maye and the Patriots just put up 405 yards in Orchard Park and went 3-for-3 in the red zone. This came after people called Maye a bust heading into that game. The Chargers were the only team not to put up 25+ points against this Buffalo defense, and they still forced five turnovers and converted 50% of their third downs.
Matthew Stafford has completed 61 passes over the last two games against legitimate defenses in Philadelphia and Denver. L.A. might score 40 points on Monday.
The Los Angeles Rams just allowed 20 points to a no-name Philly offense that went 0-for-12 on third down and managed just 10 passing yards in the second half. Only the Giants failed to score 20+ against them, and Jaxson Dart exited early with an injury.
Josh Allen's efficiency indoors is off the charts, and I love both quarterbacks to keep this game alive in a negative game script and help backdoor the Over if need be. This could look a lot like the Rams' 44-42 win over the Bills at SoFi in 2024.
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Bills vs Rams combo
It's the fifth week of trying the double-quarterback TD, and I'm not getting off it now.
Allen already has seven rushing TDs this year and is nearly a coin flip to find the end zone again on Monday. Stafford is the tougher leg to hit.
The solace here is that THE BLITZ has Stafford's TD as the best +EV TD prop in this game. He's currently 17/1 to score but should be priced closer to 12/1. Stafford does have a QB sneak in the playbook at the goal line, and the Bills just got gashed by Maye on the ground.
It's a long shot for a reason, but I'm playing the long game on Monday night. A 54.5-point total has me excited this week, as both offenses should get 4+ red-zone trips.
Bills vs Rams combo
- Matthew Stafford anytime touchdown
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown
TOP PICK
Bills vs Rams touchdown scorer: Josh Allen
In his nine games indoors, Allen's numbers are insane. Basically, take his home numbers and put them on steroids.
His passer rating is 14 points higher, but his rushing numbers really stand out. He has 12 rushing touchdowns in those nine games and averages 43 rushing yards per game. One of those performances was a three-TD, 82-yard rushing game at SoFi Stadium in 2024 against this Rams defense, in a game that saw both teams score 40+ points.
Even if you can't get behind the indoor splits, how about a quarterback who has scored a TD in every game this year, has multiple rushing TDs in 75% of his games, and has more carries inside the 5-yard line than all but seven players in the league?
James Cook has more red-zone touches than Allen (13-10), but inside the 5-yard line, it's the Allen show, with six carries to Cook's four.
There's been talk about an apparent knee injury to Allen, so I'm not running to get his rushing total, but he's still produced three scores on that same knee since Week 3, and his role around the red zone is elite. Ask any James Cook backers, as he's had fewer carries inside the five than Allen since he apparently picked up the knee injury.
Allen will show up and find the end zone in an indoor prime-time game against the reigning MVP. The fair price for this TD in a 54.5-point total should be 59.5%.
COVERS INTEL: Since 2023, Josh Allen is averaging 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game across his eight indoor games, with multi-TD efforts in 50% of those contests.Bills vs Rams player prop: Keon Coleman 40+ receiving yards
The Bills have moved away from their 13-personnel usage, hitting a season low of just 13% last week.
Keon Coleman has taken advantage of that and the DJ Moore injury, playing the second-highest snap percentage (78%) of all Buffalo pass-catchers last week. Moore has yet to practice this week, and it looks like Coleman will be locked into a WR1/2 role in an indoor game with a 54.5-point total and a potential passing-game script.
The Rams have two starting defensive backs who are questionable for Monday, with Quentin Lake a DNP and Jaylen Watson limited on Friday.
Over his last three games, Coleman has logged 129 offensive snaps, run 67 routes, and recorded 216 yards on 15 targets. His receiving-yard total is low, with a projection of 54.15, making it the best +EV prop, per THE BLITZ.
The receiving-yard prop lines for Buffalo's top three wide receivers total just 115 yards, which is quite low considering Buffalo's implied team total is around 26 points.
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Bills vs Rams odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bills +3.5 (53%) | Rams -3.5 (48%)
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (51%) | Under 54.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Bills 39% | Rams 61%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
Bills vs Rams market trends
Here's how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money to help inform your Bills vs. Rams prediction.
- Top picks: 2-2, -0.22 units
- Combos: 0-4, -4.0 units
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Bills vs Rams weather
This game is being played under the covered roof at SoFi Stadium.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Bills vs Rams trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in the Rams' last seven games following an ATS win. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Rams.
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How to watch Bills vs Rams
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif. |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN/ABC |
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Bills vs Rams latest injuries
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