The 2-1 Detroit Lions are 3.5-point favorites when they visit the 1-2 Carolina Panthers on Sunday Night Football at Bank of America Stadium.
My Lions vs. Panthers prop picks target Chuba Hubbard’s workload and two Detroit receiving unders, with more angles available in the latest NFL picks.
Best Lions vs Panthers props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Chuba Hubbard 70+ rushing yards |
53% |
 Jameson Williams Under 49.5 receiving yards |
49% |
| Sam LaPorta Under 18.5 longest reception |
55% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Prop pick #1: Chuba Hubbard 70+ rushing yards
I've already invested in the Panthers covering as 3.5-point underdogs, and RB Chuba Hubbard's rushing prop correlates with that position because Carolina shouldn't have to abandon the run if this game stays competitive.
The Panthers' first two games were double-digit losses, and Hubbard finished with only 49 and 53 rushing yards. Carolina stayed within one score of the Cleveland Browns last week, and Hubbard had 19 carries for 82 yards.
Detroit is allowing the second-most yards before contact, while Hubbard ranks 10th in rushing yards over expectation per carry, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Hubbard's rushing prop is playable up to 75+ yards.
Prop pick #2: Jameson Williams Under 49.5 receiving yards
Lions WR Jameson Williams hasn't cleared 50 receiving yards once this season, making him one of Detroit's few weak spots.
Williams has no broken tackles this season, averages only 0.4 yards after the catch, and has the worst QB rating when targeted on the team. That leaves him heavily dependent on hitting a downfield play to pile up yardage.
This also correlates with my Panthers +3.5 position. If Carolina can shorten the game and limit Detroit's possessions, Williams should have fewer opportunities to hit that explosive play. His receiving yards Under has value up to 53%.
Prop pick #3: Sam LaPorta Under 18.5 longest reception
The spine of Carolina's defense is low-key good. Panthers linebackers Devin Lloyd, Bobby Okereke, and Tyrel Dodson are all strong in coverage, while safety Zakee Wheatley ranks seventh in coverage grade among 82 qualified safeties, according to Pro Football Focus.
I'm also expecting Carolina to play a bend-don't-break defense, keep Detroit's pass-catchers in front of them, and take away explosives. That fits this prop because Lions TE Sam LaPorta has a low aDOT, so he can still catch passes without generating a long reception.
Detroit also has plenty of mouths to feed. Whether it's Carolina's coverage structure or LaPorta's usage, I'd play his longest-reception Under up to 58%.
- Prop picks: 8-10, -2.42 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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