Jets vs Vikings Week 13 Picks and Predictions: New York Gets Cooked on the Ground

Minnesota hasn't budged as a -3 favorite ahead of Week 13's home tilt against New York. Find out why the betting value instead lies in the prop market for Dalvin Cook by reading our Jets vs. Vikings betting picks.

Last Updated: Dec 4, 2022 8:29 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
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The calendar has flipped to December, bringing us Week 13 of the NFL Season. Sunday's slate includes the New York Jets traveling to the Minnesota Vikings in a matchup with playoff implications for both teams.

It's been a solid season for the Jets, and they are squarely in the playoff picture. Entering the matchup, they hold the final wild card spot in the AFC. They come into this game as winners of two of their last three, including a double-digit win over the Bears.

For the time being, the Vikings are holding the second seed in the NFC, with the Cowboys and 49ers in the chase. Like their opponent, Minnesota has won two of their last three games and enters this one fresh off a victory against the Patriots.

What's the best bet for this matchup? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Jets vs. Vikings on December 4.

Jets vs Vikings best odds

Jets vs Vikings picks and predictions

We're going to avoid taking a side here. That's often the case when tackling the sharpest market in all sports, and this game is no exception. The most significant advantage comes in the prop market, and we'll roll with Vikings running back Dalvin Cook to make up our best bet.

Cook is in the midst of one of the better seasons of his career, ranking sixth in total league yards. Cook is currently on pace for the most rushing yards in his career.

A constant in his big rushing production this season — as it has been throughout most of his career — is creating missed and broken tackles. Among backs that we'd consider true workhorses (ones that have attempted over 150 carries at this point in the season), Cook ranks fifth in broken + missed tackles percentage at 19%. 

Tackling has been a significant midseason bugaboo that has popped up for the Jets. Over the last two weeks, they've ranked as the fifth-worst among NFL teams in missed tackles. Most of the bad tackling has come at the second level, and getting there is what Cook has made a career on.

The Jets have faced a few similar backs this season and struggled against them. Way back in Week 2, before attrition had really started to set in, they faced Nick Chubb and the Browns. Chubb rushed for 87 yards on 17 carries, even with the Browns chasing points most of the game. Since that early season matchup, the Jets haven't seen an RB similar to Cook.

With that comes more uncertainty about how much they've improved when facing these types of elite runners. However, we have two things working in our favor: For starters, oddsmakers and I agree that the Vikings will lead at least a good portion of this game.

If they can get the lead late, they'll likely run the ball more to control the clock, and if they do that, Cook will have an excellent chance to eclipse the 20 carries mark. That's significant because when Cook has eclipsed that milestone, he cashed the Over for this total in three of four games, including a 100+ yard performance against the Cardinals.

Secondly, this matchup comes at a time when the Jets tackling issues have appeared to be at their worst. They see Sheldon Rankins return to the lineup this week, but I wonder if that will do much for a team whose issues come at the second level. Cook's bursts of acceleration are well-equipped to expose those issues.

Ride Dalvin Cook in this matchup with a rushing total that feels 10 to 15 yards off.

My best bet: Dalvin Cook Over 68.5 rushing yards (-115)

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Jets vs Vikings spread analysis

The Vikings are near the top of several "luck" metrics, such as opponent missed field goals and one score wins. At times, that's made them a nice fade on paper (albeit not consistently profitable), and it seemed like a good amount of that came to a head against the Dallas Cowboys back in Week 11. Even with that said, you'd still like them to win at home here, given their rushing advantage. 

This market opened at Vikings -3 and has seen some of the most minor action of any NFL game this week. This signals that most bettors view this game much like I do... stay away. The Jets can certainly win; they've notched some decent road wins, including the Green Bay Packers and the Denver Broncos.

However, I need to see New York be competitive against a high-end NFL team on the road before I can believe it. If that keeps me from cashing a bet on a bad number, then so be it. 

Jets vs Vikings Over/Under analysis

We've seen the total see some sharp buy to the Under. It opened at 45.5 and has fallen an entire point as of publication. If I end up on a side, I'd agree with the market move and take the Under.

The Vikings' 3rd best turnover margin will lead the Jets to some conservative play calling, as they won't want to put quarterback Mike White in spots to make mistakes. On the other side of the ball, we've already spoken about how the Vikings' rushing advantages could lead to a lot of time ticking off the clock.

The trends certainly favor the Under here. The Under is 4-0 in the Jets' last four wins, both against the spread and outright. In addition, the Under is 5-1 in the Jets' last five games overall. I'm going to jump on the number of 44.5 before it drops even more. 

Jets vs Vikings betting trend to know

The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Vikings.

Jets vs Vikings game info

Location: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Date: Sunday, December 4, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Vikings -3, 42 O/U

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